Severe Winter Coming? My First Thoughts.

Well folks it is that time of year already where you will see Winter forecasts flying around the internet and on TV. I want to make it clear to you all that this is NOT an official forecast, but more of a generalization on this upcoming Winter. I will have an official forecast out sometime in Mid-November.

First, lets have a brief summary on last year's Winter. Most of us recorded between 35 and 45 inches of snow last season, which is slightly to moderately above average. A typical Harrisburg Winter averages 31 inches of snow. So the next time you hear Harrisburg can expect an above/below/average Winter, forecasters are basing it off of the number 31. During the past Winter, the mid-state experienced many cold blasts from Canada. In fact, we had several record low temperatures throughout Central PA! In terms of snowfall, the Harrisburg area received many nickle and dime events that added up to an above average snowfall. The most snow I recorded in one storm was only 5.5 inches.

Time to get to what you all really want to know...what will this Winter be like?? I'm going to go over the analogues that I have chosen to represent this upcoming Winter and then I will have a summary on the bottom.

This year will feature a rather Strong El Nino. You might of heard that a 'super nino' is coming and that there is going to be record warmth this Winter...let me tell you that is nothing but hype. Yes, it is a strong El Nino, however not the strongest we have had. In a typical Strong El Nino, we have a Southern Jet Stream and a Northern Jet Stream, also known as a split jet that controls our weather pattern. This TYPICALLY leads to a rather average Winter in terms of snow and temperatures for our area. IF these two jet streams were to merge, that is when we see our biggest snowstorms which leads to an above average snowfall season...usually.

I have 3 analogues for this Winter, 1957-58, 1972-73, and 1982-83. All the 3 of these analogues are between the months of December and March of their respected years.

First 1957-58:

Temperature anomaly:

Precipitation Anomaly:

1957-58 had a rising Nino similar to what we have going on this year. During the Winter of 57-58, the Nino rose to 1.7 in December, before slowly declining. This Winter featured average to slightly below average temps and slightly above average precipitation.

Next 1972-73:

Temp Anomaly:

Precipitation Anomaly:

During the Winter of 72-73, the Nino was on the rise as well before climaxing at 2.0 in December of '72. Throughout that Winter, our area experienced slightly above average temperatures with slightly above average precipitation. One important thing to note here is the active Southern Jet Stream. Meaning, look at how wet the South was during that Winter. Many of our biggest storms, whether it be rain or snow come from the Gulf of Mexico. This analogue is hinting that the Gulf of Mexico could be loaded with moisture this year, which increases the odds for bigger storms.

Lastly 1982-1983:

Temp Analog:

Precipitation Analog:

Once again, the 1982-83 Winter featured a Strong El Nino with November, December, and January all featuring a Nino of 2.1 before declining in February. During that Winter, our temps were slightly above normal, while our precipitation was near normal. What we take away from this analog is all the warm temperatures in the northern part of our country. This could lead to potential blocking, that would slow down storms, creating larger snow and/or rain events. Also, this particular Winter was a back-loaded Winter. Meaning most of the snowfall, came February and March of that year once the Nino started to decline under 2.0. That very well could be the case this year.

Now, time to combine all three analogues into one and see what kind of Winter we can expect!

Temperature Analogue:

Precipitation Analogue:

Based off the analogues I have chosen, it looks like we can expect a slightly warmer than average Winter, with slightly above average precipitation. 

Summary:

This upcoming Winter will be nothing like the last two in terms of temperatures. The last two Winters were way below average, expect an average to slightly warmer than average temperatures for this Winter. The active Southern Jet Stream has me very intrigued as a snow lover. If we can get the Southern Jet Stream and Northern Jet Stream to merge, we would be talking about big storms forming. And I do believe that happens at least once. Snowfall forecast time... remember our typical Winter features 31 inches of snow. I firmly believe we will fall right around average to maybe slightly above. Even though I said I would not put numbers out, I will put out a range. My range will be between 30 and 35 inches of snow. Do not expect as many snowstorms as last year, however do expect storms to produce more precipitation than last year. For example, one storm could drop up to half of my predicted snow totals for the season. Instead of little nickle and dime events that happen every other day. 

Expect a slow start to Winter. December looks to be the warmest month, with below average snowfall. Most of our snowfall will come in the second half of Winter. (February 1st - March 20th) 

For those that do not feel like reading:

My Winter Temp Forecast for Dauphin County: Average to slightly warmer temps. 
My Winter Snowfall Forecast: Average to Slightly Above snowfall, with less frequent storms, but larger amounts. 

THANK YOU ALL FOR TAKING OUT THE TIME TO READ, I HOPE YOU ENJOYED IT. DO NOT FORGET TO LIKE & SHARE THIS WITH YOUR FRIENDS. I WILL HAVE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST OUT IN MID-NOVEMBER. HAVE A GREAT ONE! ~CHRIS