Severe Weather Possible For Tuesday

Storm Prediction Center Forecast For Tomorrow

After a picture perfect Monday, clouds are on the increase throughout our county and the rest of the Lower Susquehanna Valley out ahead of a front that will be pushing through the mid-state Tomorrow. If you have been keeping up to date with my Facebook page you would know by now that I am favoring areas EAST of the Susquehanna River to see some kind of thunderstorm and/or severe weather activity. These storms will be scattered throughout our area. In other words one neighborhood might be experiencing a heavy thunderstorm, while the next neighborhood over is in sunshine!

The main impacts from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, frequent lightning, and small hail. Although I did not mention tornadoes as one of my impacts, they are always possible during the events of severe weather. As always, I will keep you all updated on my Facebook page!

Very Chilly Monday Morning Leads To A Gorgeous Day!

HIRES NAM 7:00 AM Temps

If you thought Saturday's high temperatures were impressively low, then wait until you hear what I am about to say for Tomorrow morning! Our temperatures overnight will drop off significantly as the cloud cover clears out. I am sure a lot of you already know this, but to the ones that do not, when our area is under cloud cover during the overnight hours, our temperatures will not drop off all that much. This is usually a big factor while forecasting a winter storm. But, when we have mostly clear skies overnight, the heat we get from the earth is free to travel wherever it wants! Which is exactly what is going to happen during the overnight hours. Harrisburg will reach close to the 55 degree mark, while mountainous terrain in the central and northern part of our county will be in lower 50's when you wake up Tomorrow Morning. This is some pretty impressive 'chilly' air for late June! The image I have posted is the HIRES NAM valid for Tomorrow Morning at 7 AM. I think even this model is a tad too warm for Tomorrow Morning's low temperatures! Regardless, Tomorrow will warm up nicely well into the upper 70's and lower 80's with an abundance amount of sunshine. As stated on my Facebook page earlier today, our next chance for rain comes in the form of severe weather on Tuesday. I will have more information on the potential severe weather Tomorrow...keep it here!

Beautiful Day Today; Rain Tomorrow?

Huge tree falls on car in a New Jersey neighborhood.

As expected, yesterday was a very active weather day. All of South Central Pennsylvania got hit very hard by the severe weather. In particular, York and Lancaster counties had the most people without power as of last night throughout the area. Large Trees/Tree branches are down, including power lines. As the line of severe weather approached the I-95 after it passed our area, it continued to gain in strength. Along the way it fired up a couple Tornado Warnings. One of those warnings was placed just east of the Philadelphia area about 10 miles east into New Jersey. This is where massive amounts of damage was done to a large neighborhood. Right now it is assumed that straight line winds in excess of 70 MPH are to blame for this damage. No Tornado reports have been confirmed as I am typing this (2:30 AM). A friend of mine in this neighborhood took this photo capturing the damage that was done to his New Jersey neighborhood. This is why us weather enthusiasts and meteorologists tell you to stay indoors whenever severe weather strikes. You obviously do not want a tree to fall on you, trust me when I say this, THE TREE WILL WIN 10 OUT OF 10 TIMES.....

Alright moving on, Today will mark the 3rd excellent Wednesday in a row. Thanks to the storms yesterday, the cold front has cleared the area leaving us with dry and less humid conditions! The chance for any showers Today is next to none, so if you have any storm damage to clean up, Today would be the day to do it! Highs will get up into the middle 80's throughout our area.

Next chance for rain comes in the form of showers Tomorrow Afternoon. Right now the best estimate for the timing of these showers to begin will be after 1 PM and last through the evening hours. Flooding nor severe weather is expected at this time. Nevertheless, plan for a damp Thursday Afternoon. Below is the future simulated radar of the HIRES short range NAM model depicting the showers in the area.

HIRES NAM Simulated Radar Valid 11 PM Thursday Night

Severe Thunderstorms To Hit The Area Tuesday

HIRES NAM Model Future Radar 5 PM

SPC Outlook For Tuesday

Today was the calm before the storms Tomorrow. It was a rather pleasant day, but do not let that fool you. A cold front will be passing through the mid-state Tomorrow Afternoon triggering thunderstorms over the area. Here is a look at the latest HIRES NAM model. I like what this model is showing. The best potential for these storms will be to our Northeast, while our county still gets in on some of the action. The image below is for 5 PM Tomorrow. The best chance for these storms will be between 1 PM and 6 PM.

With that being said the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our area under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. The main impacts from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail.

Of course I will be covering these storms Tomorrow on my Facebook page, keep it here!

Beginning Of The Workweek Forecast

GFS High Temps

After a rainy Saturday night and even a little rain here this evening, our county will finally get a break from any rain Tomorrow. Many areas over the weekend picked up between 1.5 and 3 inches of rainfall with even locally higher amounts. Fortunately, we start off our workweek dry, but also very hot & humid. I guess we can all deal with that! Taking a look at the latest GFS forecast of high temperatures; Tomorrow you can see that temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 80's with some reading's even into the 90's to our southwest.

Showers and thunderstorms will not be an issue Tomorrow. There is a VERY minimal chance to see any showers or storms in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Taking a look at the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center you can see that the bulk of the activity will be centered around the Great Lakes Region out to our west.

SPC outlook for Monday

I would like to take this time to give a huge shout out and thank you to Justin of Lebanon County Weather for helping my Facebook page grow to what it is now! I cannot thank him enough! If you all could give his page a like if you have not already and also if you could invite your friends and family to like my Facebook page as well, we would really appreciate it! Have a good one.

Now-Casting Tropical Storm Bill's Remnants

The outer edges of Tropical Storm Bill's remnants has reached our area and has already delivered moderate rainfall over the county. Here's a current look at the radar as of 6:40 PM. Rather significant cell is currently situated right over Harrisburg and heading North-North-East. These storms will last about another hour or so until the main line of rain gets here later this evening.

This line is still off to our west, as the main area of energy is still in West Virginia. If our county continuously has the heavy downpours back to back known as 'training', we could see totals up to 4 inches of rainfall. Now, that is not my forecast but that would be the worst case scenario.

Taking a look at the latest short range HRRR model this depicts a more aggressive solution my current forecast of 1-2 inches of rain. I do however like where it shows the axis of heaviest precipitation. I like where it has the sharp cut-off around I-80. In case you missed it I will also post my final call from earlier.

My Forecast

HRRR Totals

Tropical Storm Bill Remnants

GFS Rain Totals

HiRes NAM Rain Totals

Tomorrow will start off on the dry side. As we get into the afternoon hours, clouds will begin to increase from the southwest ahead of the leftover remnants from formally known as Tropical Storm Bill. Rain should begin sometime between 5 PM and 8 PM and end before daybreak Sunday Morning. This is by no means going to be a major flooding concern, but the risk for flooding is possible in flood prone areas.

Taking a look at the GFS forecast amounts for total rainfall. As you can see this particular model takes the heaviest rains pretty far north and right near our county. I find this to be a bit too far
north with its heaviest axis.

Looking at the latest HiRes NAM model, this shows a much more reasonable scenario that I can agree with and also agrees with the European Model. This model run impacts us with about an inch of rain, but hits the counties to our south the hardest.

I posted this map on my Facebook page, so if you did not see it earlier here are my updated thoughts on rain totals Saturday Night into Sunday Morning.