Monday Will Be Another Hot One, But Just How Hot Have We Been This Summer?

Today will be much like yesterday. Hot, with a chance for a scattered shower/thunderstorm. Temperatures will reach 90 degrees once again. Today will not be quite as bad as yesterday, but with the humidity temperatures will still feel like anywhere from 95 to 100 degrees. The rest of this week looks hot, but a bit more manageable with highs mainly in the upper 80s. The image below is the HIRES NAM model's forecast high temps for the day.

Like I said, highs will be right around 90 degrees, but the humidity is what is going to make it feel even hotter. Unfortunately, here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, whenever it gets really hot, the humidity also increases. Not often do we see hot temperatures with low humidity. One of many reasons I prefer the Fall over Summer. Anyways here is the same model's relative humidity forecast. Most of Dauphin County is around 60% relative humidity which is not terrible, but with temps around 90 degrees, this would mean we would have to add another 5-10 degrees which can be a bit on the dangerous side.

With all the talk on how hot it has been the past couple days, just how hot have we been this Summer? Thanks to a rather cool start we are right around an average Summer in terms of temperatures which is not uncommon during strong El Nino ENSO events. (Different story for a different day, but the strong El Nino will be a huge driving force during this Winter, but too early obviously for specific details). Here is an anomaly map so far of this Summer's temperatures. And yes, in the meteorology field we are a little past the half way point. Meteorological Summer begins June 1st and lasts until September 1st for those that do not know.

My question for you all is, do you prefer these hot temps the past couple days or would you rather have temps in the upper 70s/low 80s?

As always stay tuned for more updates. Make sure you have my page like on Facebook if you have not already. Search 'Dauphin County Weather'. Thanks and have a great day!

Weekend Forecast Featuring Chance For Storms & Hottest Temps Of The Year

As promised, the humid air did make a return to the mid-state yesterday. The humidity only looks to increase as we head throughout the rest of our weekend. Today's high temperatures will reach 90 degrees with some areas in Southern York and Lancaster counties reaching the mid-90s. The chances for any severe weather today is low, however there is a chance for a downpour or two later this afternoon. Once again, like yesterday I believe most of us will escape the rain and remain dry. Nonetheless, the first image I have posted is the HIRES NAM simulated radar valid for 6 PM this evening, showing the scattered downpours throughout the area. Again, not likely to hit your backyard, but just something to keep an eye on.

Time to talk about the severe HEAT that will be impacting our area. Yes, beginning Today starts the stretch of a mini 'Heat Wave' that will last through at least Tuesday. If you have been following my forecasts, you know I have been talking about it for the last few days. Now that it is here, I want to remind all of you to NOT leave young children and pets in your car even if it less than a few minutes. Also, if you have any older family members or neighbors, be sure to check on them once in awhile, as heat is known to be lethal to the elders.

With that being said, Sunday looks to be dry, but at the same time be the hottest day during this 'Heat Wave'. My next image I have posted is the GFS forecast for Sunday showing you the max temperatures. This shows Harrisburg topping off around 95 degrees and areas towards DC soaring pass 100 degrees! That is just the actual temperature!! Factoring in the heat index, I am the sure the National Weather Service will be issuing heat advisories to the area. You can easily add 10 degrees to whatever temperature is nearest to your location to get the 'real feel' temperature.

My final image will be the National Weather Service's Heat Index danger chart. During the daylight hours Sunday, Dauphin County will be under the extreme caution category and at times the dangerous category. I firmly believe some backyards will see heat index values approach 110 degrees especially areas in Adams/York/Lancaster. Pretty incredible for this area, but not unheard of. Please stay hydrated, keep a look out for others, and have a great weekend. Oh and make sure you keep it here to Dauphin County Weather for the latest and most reliable updates.

P.S. Only 45 more days until Meteorological Fall!

Showers And Storms Clearing; Hottest Temps This Year Possible Early Next Week

After a warm and humid day, we are finally getting a good dose of a hefty thunderstorm passing through the area as I am typing this. (1:20 AM). So as many of you are asleep and will not read this until I post this blog on my Facebook page later this morning, our county is getting hit rather hard especially areas north of Harrisburg. Even here in Colonial Park we have moderate rainfall with frequent lightning and thunder. So if you have slept through this thunderstorm, congrats to you! I expect most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be done with by sunrise, with all activity well off to our east by 7 AM. I have posted the HIRES NAM model which is valid for 7 AM.

The remainder of the day will remain dry with temps rising to near 80 degrees. The humidity will start to noticeably diminish by the time we reach the evening hours.

Looking ahead into the long range, I am keeping an eye between this Sunday through Tuesday where I expect our first real mini 'Heat Wave' of the Summer Season. I think all three days have a shot at reaching 90 degrees, with Monday being the hottest of the three. The image I have to represent this is the 12z run from yesterday's European model. This model shows widespread middle 90s, with upper 90s into Northern Virginia for highs this Monday!

European model High Temps Valid Monday (7/20)

Forecast For Thursday + Storm Review

Trees completely uprooted falls on car.

Before I get to Tomorrow's forecast, I want to recap yesterday's storms. An EF-1 did occur in Northumberland county yesterday confirmed by the National Weather Service. I had posted on my Facebook page an image of what appeared to be a funnel yesterday in the Lehigh Valley area near Allentown. According to the National Weather Service, the funnel never reached the ground so therefore, there was no official tornado. However, there were still buildings and trees that were significantly damaged by what was ruled straight-line winds that reached upwards of 80 MPH. Just a reminder that straight-line winds can be just as dangerous as a tornado. To show you proof, a friend of mine took this picture where the straight line winds occurred near Allentown.

There was a widespread area where other trees were uprooted and roofs of buildings were torn away from their respected building. In other words if you ever hear that straight-line winds are possible, DO NOT take it lightly. It is a very serious matter that can be deadly.

Now moving on to Tomorrow's Forecast. We should see a mix of clouds and sun with a chance for an isolated shower or two in the afternoon hours. The best chance for any shower activity will remain well to our South&East. If you have any travel plans to the Southern Maryland or Delaware beaches, that is where the chance for rain increases.

Simulated Radar Valid 3 PM Thursday.

The image I have posted is valid for 3 PM Thursday which shows the simulated radar per the HIRES NAM model. As you can see the shower activity is scattered throughout the state with steadier rains further to the south & east. The threat for a brief shower will persist into the evening hours.

I do not expect much in the way of severe weather Tomorrow and I do not see any widespread outbreaks like yesterday anytime soon.

Have a great night!