New Year, New Pattern.

Before I get into the long range, some of us in the coverage area will have to deal with a Wintry Mix Monday Night, before a change over to rain. 48 hours ago, models were trending colder, suggesting that many of us, even York/Lancaster counties, would see at least a moderate impact from snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Reason being was the location of the High Pressure system sitting in Canada, was originally modeled to be a few hundred miles southwest, and much slower to leave the Northeast. With a clock-wise motion, this helps funnel in the cold air into our area from Canada.

I drew up a quick image to represent what I am talking about. "X" marks the spot. The "X" is where the high pressure was originally modeled to be. The "H" you see stands for High Pressure, which is where the HP is now modeled to be.

Pretty substantial difference as you can see. This leads to a more wet scenario than white. To be honest, as a snow lover myself, this is a great thing. Because let me tell you, this would NOT of been a snowstorm for the Lower Susquehanna Valley even if the HP was located where it was originally modeled. Instead, it would of been a significant sleet and freezing rain storm..two types of precipitation you do not want to mess with.

Here is a zoomed in look over our region during the onset of the storm.

Notice the oranges and pinks...our area might not escape all of the sleet/freezing rain. But look how quick the transition is from pinks/oranges to green. Green being rain obviously. It still is possible that as far south as Northern York, may start off as a period of Sleet... AT THE ONSET. But, within a half hour it will turn into a cold rain for everyone south of I-80.

Areas north of I-80, may hang onto the sleet/freezing rain a little longer. Enough that Winter Weather Advisories may be posted for those areas. But, even these areas will transition to a cold rain.

LONG TERM UPDATE:

As the New Year approaches, our weather pattern will be changing. Take a look at the current temperature anomalies.

Hard to miss the warm pool of temperatures across the Eastern half of the US. This storm that will impact us Monday Night into Tuesday Morning will take a track right along the temperature gradient, or where the above normal temps, meet the below normal temps. I guess you can call that your lesson for the day. Many storms follow where the temperature gradient sets up. Alright back on track. Take a look at Western Canada. Notice the below average temps located there where I have the "X". This would indicate a trough over the western half of the US, and a ridge in the East. Typically, whatever happens in regards to temperatures in Western Canada, the opposite occurs over the Eastern US. This whole month of December we have been under that Southeast Ridge. This is why our temps are record breaking warm.

But...looking ahead after the New Year, we have a whole different pattern setting up.

Notice the warm pool of air in Western Canada. This is a huge difference than what we saw for the entire month of December. This leads to a more seasonal/colder look for the Eastern US.

Not only does that pool indicate warm temps in Western Canada, it also promotes ridging in the West and a trough in the East. Although, I would like to see that warm pool of air slide further south into the Western US, to receive our bigger storms, this pattern would still support clippers that burst out of Canada and impact our region with light to moderate snowfall events. Now do not worry snow lovers. The chance for big storms will increase as we head later into January. But, for the first week of January. we are looking at a "clipper pattern" with colder temperatures in the East.

-Chris

Looking Ahead Through The Rest Of December

Many of you may be wondering where the season we call Winter is. I am beginning to wonder the same thing. However, as many forecasters expected, this month of December has been predicted fairly accurately, but not perfect. I will be the first to admit, that I did not expect it to be this warm, nor did I expect us to struggle to see a single snowflake throughout the entire month of December. Granted, we are only half way through the month, but the signals are pointing to a snow-less month.

First off, here is a look of how December has started off in the temperature department:

Nearly the entire Lower 48 is above average temperature-wise for the month! It truly is incredible. Right now all of Pennsylvania is averaging between 4 and 6 degrees Celsius above normal which is an outstanding number, that will continue to climb as we head into the rest of the month.

Tuesday through Thursday will remain above average, until a low pressure system slides to our south on Thursday, delivering with it rainfall. This system will bring with it a minor to low-end moderate rainfall event. Meaning, the area can expect between a quarter of an inch to an inch of rainfall before the night's end on Thursday.

Shockingly, on the backside of this system, it will bring with it much colder air to the region for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Lake-Effect Snow will be cranking this weekend. Areas near Lake Erie may receive several inches of snow, while areas near Lake Ontario could see double digit snow totals is localized locations. As for the Lower Susquehanna Valley, the chance for some of those Lake-Effect Snow Showers to survive the mountains is slim, but there is a chance for some flurry activity during the day Saturday.

Above is valid Saturday Morning. Nearly all of PA is in the lighter blues, which means temperatures between 1 and 4 degrees below normal for this time of year. But, would you look at what is occurring in the picture that we have not seen for quite sometime... a RIDGE OUT WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST..WOW.  Okay, I'm exaggerating a bit and kind of making fun of our weather pattern that we have been stuck in for practically the last month. Anybody who has an understanding of the weather knows what I am talking about.

Here is look of the Lake-Effect Snow Showers I was talking about valid Saturday Morning. A stiff North West off the lakes will deliver a rather brutal cold shot to the mid-state regardless if we do see the flakes fly. Temperatures Saturday may not even make its way out of the thirties! At least it will put us in a the holiday spirit for a little bit. Best chance for any snowfall, is State College, North and West.

This cold shot is short lived however, by the time next Monday (12/21) rolls around, temperatures will be back to warmer than average.

Here is a sneak peak of temperatures Christmas Eve compared to normal:

Ouch...20+ degrees above normal for Christmas Eve into Christmas?? That would put our temperatures into the 60s! With areas near the Mason/Dixon line approaching the 70 degree mark....

Forecast breakdown for the rest of the month:

Tuesday 12/15 - Thursday 12/17: Temperatures averaging above normal. Thursday features a rain event for our area.

Friday 12/18 - Sunday 12/20: Slightly below average temperatures. Lake-Effect Snow gets cranking, possible flurries flying around on Saturday for the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Monday 12/21 - Wednesday 12/23: Above normal Temperatures as the Southeast ridge emerges once again.

Thursday 12/24 - Saturday 12/27: Well above normal Temperatures, approaching record high's with many of us reaching the 60s.

Sunday 12/28 - Tuesday 12/31: Temperatures beginning to decline, however still above normal.

-Chris

2015-2016 Official Winter Forecast

Man, has time seemed to fly by since my last post regarding this upcoming Winter or what? It has already been over a month since I released my initial thoughts regarding this upcoming Winter. Much has changed just in that short of a period of time!

First off, if you want to skip the technical discussion and just want to get straight to the forecast, then feel free to skip ahead. I will never know..for those that like to know the details of what goes into forecasting for this upcoming Winter, well then follow along!

First off, we will take a look at the current state of the ENSO. This is located in the Central Pacific, where I have the red box outlined. In the image above, this is showing sea surface temperature anomalies. Because we see dark red colors, this indicates sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. In fact, they are near record warmth. This signals this year to be an El Nino, which I am sure many of you heard in certain news outlets it being called the "Super El Nino" or "Godzilla El Nino." Folks that is nothing but hype. Do not worry, it is not as serious as it sounds. Anyways, if this certain area of the ocean was colder than normal, than we would be talking about what is known as a La Nina Winter. Over the last month, we have seen the ENSO centralize quite a bit, which is good thing for snow lovers. What this means is the warmer ocean temperatures have moved away from the South American Coast and closer to the International Dateline. During an El Nino, the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream gets cranking, allowing for abundance of moisture to come out of the Gulf of Mexico. This usually leads to the south being very wet and brings the potential for big storms in our neck of the woods.

So, does a warm November automatically mean a warm and snow-less Winter? NO. I am sure many people of the Lower Susquehanna Valley will remember the Winter of 2009-2010 where we had a total of 3 major snow storms that year, 2 of which happened in one week! Many snowfall records were shattered that year. That's beside the point, however take a look at the November 2009 temperature anomaly.

It was very warm, similar to this November. Now, this does not mean we see a repeat of that Winter, however it is to prove my point that a warm November, does not automatically mean a warm and snow-less Winter.

My top 3 analogues for this upcoming Winter season have remained the same over the last month. If I had to rank them from 1-3, 1957-58 would be my top analogue, #2 would be 1982-83, and #3 would be 1972-73. Below is what the temperatures across the nation looked when you blend those 3 anomalies.

Yellow/Oranges/Reds are your warmer than average temps, while greens/blues are your colder than average temps. Below is then what the precipitation looked like during those analog years.

Now, no analogs are going to perfect as now two seasons are the same. However, I believe they give a good general idea of what we can expect this upcoming Winter.

A big player this upcoming Winter, that will more than likely happen is blocking up over Greenland, known as a Greenland block. This is often referred to as a negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation). Below is a diagram showing this.

A negative NAO, not only locks in the Cold Air over the east, but is also slows down the Jet Stream significantly. For those that do not know, the Jet Stream is the wavy looking thing in the image above. The Jet Stream is the main driving force for all weather systems in the atmosphere. Allowing the Jet Stream to slow down, will cause much bigger and prolonged Winter Storms. This is a huge difference compared to last Winter. Last Winter we had multiple nickle and dime events. That is because we did not have a negative NAO! The Jet Stream was very fast moving.

End of technical discussion..time for the forecast.

Starting off with the month of December. As a whole, December will feature slightly above normal temperatures around these parts. However, this does not mean everyday will feature above normal temps. In fact, we will have some cold spells throughout the month, that if timed right, will lead to significant Winter Storms. Precipitation will be slightly above normal, while snowfall will be near normal.

December Temperature Forecast:

December Precipitation Forecast:

During the month of January I expect this to be the transition month between warmer and stormy vs colder and stormy. So for the first half of the month expect temperatures to average slightly above normal, but during the second half I expect temperatures to average slightly below normal. In the end, expect near to slightly above normal temperatures during the month of January. The deep south with see the first freeze of the season during this month, as a result from the Jet Stream taking a dip to the south of our area. This will allow for our area and coastal areas to see slightly above normal precipitation. Towards the end of this month, blocking should begin to show up over Greenland, which will lead to a wild February.

January Temperature Forecast:

January Precipitation Forecast:

February is the key month in this year's Winter Forecast. By this time, we should have blocking established over Greenland allowing for cold air over not only our region, but the deep south as well and the Jet Stream will slow down big time, creating large storm systems. Without trying to get any of you too excited, I will say February truly has the potential to make Winter lovers very happy. Temperatures will average below normal, while precipitation will average above normal. Snowfall will be above normal in our area, possibly well above normal in the southern states.

February Temperature Forecast:

February Precipitation Forecast:

What has the potential to be a "blockbuster" February, I do not see it lasting into March. In fact, this year I believe we see a rather quick ending to the Winter. I do not see this one dragging on into late March. March will average to be slightly warmer than normal, with average precipitation. As well as average to slightly below average snowfall.

March Temperature Forecast:

March Precipitation Forecast:

With the month by month breakdown done with, here is another map summarizing this Winter.

Region by Region breakdown. (Match the number with the description.)

Region 1 (Red) - Overall, not a Winter for snow lovers. Expect well above normal temperatures, with well below average snowfall.

Region 2 (Orange) - Expect mainly warmer conditions, with cold spells every now and then. Snowfall will be hard to come by during those cold spells, so expect slightly below average snowfall.

Region 3 (Light blue) - Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal. With a few big storms, this area will have no problem receiving their average snowfall.

Region 4 (Medium Blue) - Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with the exception of February. Expect less frequent storms, however the systems that do hit, will often be large. Expect slightly above average snowfall.

Region 5 (Dark Blue) - This area is my sweets spot if you are snow lover who lives in this area. Expect a much colder than average Winter will well above normal snowfall. Similar to region 4, do not expect frequent storms, however a couple big storms will put this area well above normal in terms of snowfall.

Region 6 (Pink) - If you live in this area, I am sorry to say that you are located in the middle of everything and could go either way between a warm and snow-less Winter and a cold and snowy Winter. It truly is a toss up. If you live in the southern part of this zone I would favor the cold/snowy, while if you live in the northern part of the pink zone, I would favor the warm/less snowy.

Region 7 (Purple) - This region will have no problem reaching their annual snowfall and then some. Expect a mainly colder than normal Winter with periods of warmth, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter.

Region 8 (Grey) - Nothing overpowers the other in this region. Expect average temperatures, with average snowfall.

Region 9 (Green) - Thanks to the active Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, be ready for a very wet and cold Winter. Average snowfall should be anticipated.

Finally the localized Winter Forecast for the viewing area.

Areas South and East of State College can expect warmer conditions with slightly above normal snowfall, more specifically up to 133%. For example, Harrisburg averages 31" of snow, this means we can expect up to 41" of snow this year. Meanwhile, State College North and West can expect warmer than average temperatures, with near normal snowfall.

Summary:

Do not expect any major storms in the month of December because any blocking will not be established until late January. However, the month of December, January, and February, all have the potential of above average snowfall (specifically the areas in the darker blue.) February has the chance for one or two "blockbuster" type storms that would make snow lovers happy. However, expect a quick turn around as we head into March. 

Snowfall Predictions by location:

Harrisburg: 35-41"
York: 32-38"
Lancaster: 32-38"
State College: 46-52"
Philadelphia 26-32"

Let the fun begin!

-Chris

Severe Winter Coming? My First Thoughts.

Well folks it is that time of year already where you will see Winter forecasts flying around the internet and on TV. I want to make it clear to you all that this is NOT an official forecast, but more of a generalization on this upcoming Winter. I will have an official forecast out sometime in Mid-November.

First, lets have a brief summary on last year's Winter. Most of us recorded between 35 and 45 inches of snow last season, which is slightly to moderately above average. A typical Harrisburg Winter averages 31 inches of snow. So the next time you hear Harrisburg can expect an above/below/average Winter, forecasters are basing it off of the number 31. During the past Winter, the mid-state experienced many cold blasts from Canada. In fact, we had several record low temperatures throughout Central PA! In terms of snowfall, the Harrisburg area received many nickle and dime events that added up to an above average snowfall. The most snow I recorded in one storm was only 5.5 inches.

Time to get to what you all really want to know...what will this Winter be like?? I'm going to go over the analogues that I have chosen to represent this upcoming Winter and then I will have a summary on the bottom.

This year will feature a rather Strong El Nino. You might of heard that a 'super nino' is coming and that there is going to be record warmth this Winter...let me tell you that is nothing but hype. Yes, it is a strong El Nino, however not the strongest we have had. In a typical Strong El Nino, we have a Southern Jet Stream and a Northern Jet Stream, also known as a split jet that controls our weather pattern. This TYPICALLY leads to a rather average Winter in terms of snow and temperatures for our area. IF these two jet streams were to merge, that is when we see our biggest snowstorms which leads to an above average snowfall season...usually.

I have 3 analogues for this Winter, 1957-58, 1972-73, and 1982-83. All the 3 of these analogues are between the months of December and March of their respected years.

First 1957-58:

Temperature anomaly:

Precipitation Anomaly:

1957-58 had a rising Nino similar to what we have going on this year. During the Winter of 57-58, the Nino rose to 1.7 in December, before slowly declining. This Winter featured average to slightly below average temps and slightly above average precipitation.

Next 1972-73:

Temp Anomaly:

Precipitation Anomaly:

During the Winter of 72-73, the Nino was on the rise as well before climaxing at 2.0 in December of '72. Throughout that Winter, our area experienced slightly above average temperatures with slightly above average precipitation. One important thing to note here is the active Southern Jet Stream. Meaning, look at how wet the South was during that Winter. Many of our biggest storms, whether it be rain or snow come from the Gulf of Mexico. This analogue is hinting that the Gulf of Mexico could be loaded with moisture this year, which increases the odds for bigger storms.

Lastly 1982-1983:

Temp Analog:

Precipitation Analog:

Once again, the 1982-83 Winter featured a Strong El Nino with November, December, and January all featuring a Nino of 2.1 before declining in February. During that Winter, our temps were slightly above normal, while our precipitation was near normal. What we take away from this analog is all the warm temperatures in the northern part of our country. This could lead to potential blocking, that would slow down storms, creating larger snow and/or rain events. Also, this particular Winter was a back-loaded Winter. Meaning most of the snowfall, came February and March of that year once the Nino started to decline under 2.0. That very well could be the case this year.

Now, time to combine all three analogues into one and see what kind of Winter we can expect!

Temperature Analogue:

Precipitation Analogue:

Based off the analogues I have chosen, it looks like we can expect a slightly warmer than average Winter, with slightly above average precipitation. 

Summary:

This upcoming Winter will be nothing like the last two in terms of temperatures. The last two Winters were way below average, expect an average to slightly warmer than average temperatures for this Winter. The active Southern Jet Stream has me very intrigued as a snow lover. If we can get the Southern Jet Stream and Northern Jet Stream to merge, we would be talking about big storms forming. And I do believe that happens at least once. Snowfall forecast time... remember our typical Winter features 31 inches of snow. I firmly believe we will fall right around average to maybe slightly above. Even though I said I would not put numbers out, I will put out a range. My range will be between 30 and 35 inches of snow. Do not expect as many snowstorms as last year, however do expect storms to produce more precipitation than last year. For example, one storm could drop up to half of my predicted snow totals for the season. Instead of little nickle and dime events that happen every other day. 

Expect a slow start to Winter. December looks to be the warmest month, with below average snowfall. Most of our snowfall will come in the second half of Winter. (February 1st - March 20th) 

For those that do not feel like reading:

My Winter Temp Forecast for Dauphin County: Average to slightly warmer temps. 
My Winter Snowfall Forecast: Average to Slightly Above snowfall, with less frequent storms, but larger amounts. 

THANK YOU ALL FOR TAKING OUT THE TIME TO READ, I HOPE YOU ENJOYED IT. DO NOT FORGET TO LIKE & SHARE THIS WITH YOUR FRIENDS. I WILL HAVE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST OUT IN MID-NOVEMBER. HAVE A GREAT ONE! ~CHRIS

Saturday Forecast Along With A Brief July Recap

HAPPY AUGUST 1ST! One more month until Meteorological Fall! Today will be no different than the past few days with the exception of less humid air. I hate to bore you all as these past couple weeks have not brought the most exciting weather, which does not appear to be changing anytime soon. Today temperatures will approach 90 degrees. There will be a SLIGHT chance for a passing shower, but most of us will remain dry. The image to the right shows you the HIRES NAM's forecast high temps for the day. I believe it is a bit underdone as most of us should hit 90 degrees.

Last night, I posted on my Facebook page regarding AccuWeather that they had posted their first thoughts regarding this year's Winter Forecast. Right now, the forecast is on their paid site. Once they post it to the rest of the public, I will be sure to share it with you guys. Again, my first thoughts on this year's Winter will not be posted on this blog or my Facebook page until late September at the earliest.

This past month started off very active. Anywhere from reports of several tornadoes to intense strait line wind damage we had it all within the first 20 days of July. The second half ended rather calm and hot, which continues to be the case as we head into August. Just how do our July temperatures look compared to average? Well thanks to a cool start to the month, most of Central PA including Dauphin County ended the month with SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE temperatures. You would not know it after the minor heat wave we have been having the past 10 days or so. The map below is courtesy of WeatherBell which shows you a Temperature anomaly in Celsius for July.

Monday Will Be Another Hot One, But Just How Hot Have We Been This Summer?

Today will be much like yesterday. Hot, with a chance for a scattered shower/thunderstorm. Temperatures will reach 90 degrees once again. Today will not be quite as bad as yesterday, but with the humidity temperatures will still feel like anywhere from 95 to 100 degrees. The rest of this week looks hot, but a bit more manageable with highs mainly in the upper 80s. The image below is the HIRES NAM model's forecast high temps for the day.

Like I said, highs will be right around 90 degrees, but the humidity is what is going to make it feel even hotter. Unfortunately, here in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, whenever it gets really hot, the humidity also increases. Not often do we see hot temperatures with low humidity. One of many reasons I prefer the Fall over Summer. Anyways here is the same model's relative humidity forecast. Most of Dauphin County is around 60% relative humidity which is not terrible, but with temps around 90 degrees, this would mean we would have to add another 5-10 degrees which can be a bit on the dangerous side.

With all the talk on how hot it has been the past couple days, just how hot have we been this Summer? Thanks to a rather cool start we are right around an average Summer in terms of temperatures which is not uncommon during strong El Nino ENSO events. (Different story for a different day, but the strong El Nino will be a huge driving force during this Winter, but too early obviously for specific details). Here is an anomaly map so far of this Summer's temperatures. And yes, in the meteorology field we are a little past the half way point. Meteorological Summer begins June 1st and lasts until September 1st for those that do not know.

My question for you all is, do you prefer these hot temps the past couple days or would you rather have temps in the upper 70s/low 80s?

As always stay tuned for more updates. Make sure you have my page like on Facebook if you have not already. Search 'Dauphin County Weather'. Thanks and have a great day!

Weekend Forecast Featuring Chance For Storms & Hottest Temps Of The Year

As promised, the humid air did make a return to the mid-state yesterday. The humidity only looks to increase as we head throughout the rest of our weekend. Today's high temperatures will reach 90 degrees with some areas in Southern York and Lancaster counties reaching the mid-90s. The chances for any severe weather today is low, however there is a chance for a downpour or two later this afternoon. Once again, like yesterday I believe most of us will escape the rain and remain dry. Nonetheless, the first image I have posted is the HIRES NAM simulated radar valid for 6 PM this evening, showing the scattered downpours throughout the area. Again, not likely to hit your backyard, but just something to keep an eye on.

Time to talk about the severe HEAT that will be impacting our area. Yes, beginning Today starts the stretch of a mini 'Heat Wave' that will last through at least Tuesday. If you have been following my forecasts, you know I have been talking about it for the last few days. Now that it is here, I want to remind all of you to NOT leave young children and pets in your car even if it less than a few minutes. Also, if you have any older family members or neighbors, be sure to check on them once in awhile, as heat is known to be lethal to the elders.

With that being said, Sunday looks to be dry, but at the same time be the hottest day during this 'Heat Wave'. My next image I have posted is the GFS forecast for Sunday showing you the max temperatures. This shows Harrisburg topping off around 95 degrees and areas towards DC soaring pass 100 degrees! That is just the actual temperature!! Factoring in the heat index, I am the sure the National Weather Service will be issuing heat advisories to the area. You can easily add 10 degrees to whatever temperature is nearest to your location to get the 'real feel' temperature.

My final image will be the National Weather Service's Heat Index danger chart. During the daylight hours Sunday, Dauphin County will be under the extreme caution category and at times the dangerous category. I firmly believe some backyards will see heat index values approach 110 degrees especially areas in Adams/York/Lancaster. Pretty incredible for this area, but not unheard of. Please stay hydrated, keep a look out for others, and have a great weekend. Oh and make sure you keep it here to Dauphin County Weather for the latest and most reliable updates.

P.S. Only 45 more days until Meteorological Fall!

Showers And Storms Clearing; Hottest Temps This Year Possible Early Next Week

After a warm and humid day, we are finally getting a good dose of a hefty thunderstorm passing through the area as I am typing this. (1:20 AM). So as many of you are asleep and will not read this until I post this blog on my Facebook page later this morning, our county is getting hit rather hard especially areas north of Harrisburg. Even here in Colonial Park we have moderate rainfall with frequent lightning and thunder. So if you have slept through this thunderstorm, congrats to you! I expect most of the shower and thunderstorm activity to be done with by sunrise, with all activity well off to our east by 7 AM. I have posted the HIRES NAM model which is valid for 7 AM.

The remainder of the day will remain dry with temps rising to near 80 degrees. The humidity will start to noticeably diminish by the time we reach the evening hours.

Looking ahead into the long range, I am keeping an eye between this Sunday through Tuesday where I expect our first real mini 'Heat Wave' of the Summer Season. I think all three days have a shot at reaching 90 degrees, with Monday being the hottest of the three. The image I have to represent this is the 12z run from yesterday's European model. This model shows widespread middle 90s, with upper 90s into Northern Virginia for highs this Monday!

European model High Temps Valid Monday (7/20)

Forecast For Thursday + Storm Review

Trees completely uprooted falls on car.

Before I get to Tomorrow's forecast, I want to recap yesterday's storms. An EF-1 did occur in Northumberland county yesterday confirmed by the National Weather Service. I had posted on my Facebook page an image of what appeared to be a funnel yesterday in the Lehigh Valley area near Allentown. According to the National Weather Service, the funnel never reached the ground so therefore, there was no official tornado. However, there were still buildings and trees that were significantly damaged by what was ruled straight-line winds that reached upwards of 80 MPH. Just a reminder that straight-line winds can be just as dangerous as a tornado. To show you proof, a friend of mine took this picture where the straight line winds occurred near Allentown.

There was a widespread area where other trees were uprooted and roofs of buildings were torn away from their respected building. In other words if you ever hear that straight-line winds are possible, DO NOT take it lightly. It is a very serious matter that can be deadly.

Now moving on to Tomorrow's Forecast. We should see a mix of clouds and sun with a chance for an isolated shower or two in the afternoon hours. The best chance for any shower activity will remain well to our South&East. If you have any travel plans to the Southern Maryland or Delaware beaches, that is where the chance for rain increases.

Simulated Radar Valid 3 PM Thursday.

The image I have posted is valid for 3 PM Thursday which shows the simulated radar per the HIRES NAM model. As you can see the shower activity is scattered throughout the state with steadier rains further to the south & east. The threat for a brief shower will persist into the evening hours.

I do not expect much in the way of severe weather Tomorrow and I do not see any widespread outbreaks like yesterday anytime soon.

Have a great night!

Severe Weather Possible For Tuesday

Storm Prediction Center Forecast For Tomorrow

After a picture perfect Monday, clouds are on the increase throughout our county and the rest of the Lower Susquehanna Valley out ahead of a front that will be pushing through the mid-state Tomorrow. If you have been keeping up to date with my Facebook page you would know by now that I am favoring areas EAST of the Susquehanna River to see some kind of thunderstorm and/or severe weather activity. These storms will be scattered throughout our area. In other words one neighborhood might be experiencing a heavy thunderstorm, while the next neighborhood over is in sunshine!

The main impacts from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH, frequent lightning, and small hail. Although I did not mention tornadoes as one of my impacts, they are always possible during the events of severe weather. As always, I will keep you all updated on my Facebook page!

Very Chilly Monday Morning Leads To A Gorgeous Day!

HIRES NAM 7:00 AM Temps

If you thought Saturday's high temperatures were impressively low, then wait until you hear what I am about to say for Tomorrow morning! Our temperatures overnight will drop off significantly as the cloud cover clears out. I am sure a lot of you already know this, but to the ones that do not, when our area is under cloud cover during the overnight hours, our temperatures will not drop off all that much. This is usually a big factor while forecasting a winter storm. But, when we have mostly clear skies overnight, the heat we get from the earth is free to travel wherever it wants! Which is exactly what is going to happen during the overnight hours. Harrisburg will reach close to the 55 degree mark, while mountainous terrain in the central and northern part of our county will be in lower 50's when you wake up Tomorrow Morning. This is some pretty impressive 'chilly' air for late June! The image I have posted is the HIRES NAM valid for Tomorrow Morning at 7 AM. I think even this model is a tad too warm for Tomorrow Morning's low temperatures! Regardless, Tomorrow will warm up nicely well into the upper 70's and lower 80's with an abundance amount of sunshine. As stated on my Facebook page earlier today, our next chance for rain comes in the form of severe weather on Tuesday. I will have more information on the potential severe weather Tomorrow...keep it here!

Beautiful Day Today; Rain Tomorrow?

Huge tree falls on car in a New Jersey neighborhood.

As expected, yesterday was a very active weather day. All of South Central Pennsylvania got hit very hard by the severe weather. In particular, York and Lancaster counties had the most people without power as of last night throughout the area. Large Trees/Tree branches are down, including power lines. As the line of severe weather approached the I-95 after it passed our area, it continued to gain in strength. Along the way it fired up a couple Tornado Warnings. One of those warnings was placed just east of the Philadelphia area about 10 miles east into New Jersey. This is where massive amounts of damage was done to a large neighborhood. Right now it is assumed that straight line winds in excess of 70 MPH are to blame for this damage. No Tornado reports have been confirmed as I am typing this (2:30 AM). A friend of mine in this neighborhood took this photo capturing the damage that was done to his New Jersey neighborhood. This is why us weather enthusiasts and meteorologists tell you to stay indoors whenever severe weather strikes. You obviously do not want a tree to fall on you, trust me when I say this, THE TREE WILL WIN 10 OUT OF 10 TIMES.....

Alright moving on, Today will mark the 3rd excellent Wednesday in a row. Thanks to the storms yesterday, the cold front has cleared the area leaving us with dry and less humid conditions! The chance for any showers Today is next to none, so if you have any storm damage to clean up, Today would be the day to do it! Highs will get up into the middle 80's throughout our area.

Next chance for rain comes in the form of showers Tomorrow Afternoon. Right now the best estimate for the timing of these showers to begin will be after 1 PM and last through the evening hours. Flooding nor severe weather is expected at this time. Nevertheless, plan for a damp Thursday Afternoon. Below is the future simulated radar of the HIRES short range NAM model depicting the showers in the area.

HIRES NAM Simulated Radar Valid 11 PM Thursday Night

Severe Thunderstorms To Hit The Area Tuesday

HIRES NAM Model Future Radar 5 PM

SPC Outlook For Tuesday

Today was the calm before the storms Tomorrow. It was a rather pleasant day, but do not let that fool you. A cold front will be passing through the mid-state Tomorrow Afternoon triggering thunderstorms over the area. Here is a look at the latest HIRES NAM model. I like what this model is showing. The best potential for these storms will be to our Northeast, while our county still gets in on some of the action. The image below is for 5 PM Tomorrow. The best chance for these storms will be between 1 PM and 6 PM.

With that being said the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has put our area under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. The main impacts from these storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 MPH and large hail.

Of course I will be covering these storms Tomorrow on my Facebook page, keep it here!