First off, if you want to skip the technical discussion and just want to get straight to the forecast, then feel free to skip ahead. I will never know..for those that like to know the details of what goes into forecasting for this upcoming Winter, well then follow along!
First off, we will take a look at the current state of the ENSO. This is located in the Central Pacific, where I have the red box outlined. In the image above, this is showing sea surface temperature anomalies. Because we see dark red colors, this indicates sea surface temperatures are much warmer than average. In fact, they are near record warmth. This signals this year to be an El Nino, which I am sure many of you heard in certain news outlets it being called the "Super El Nino" or "Godzilla El Nino." Folks that is nothing but hype. Do not worry, it is not as serious as it sounds. Anyways, if this certain area of the ocean was colder than normal, than we would be talking about what is known as a La Nina Winter. Over the last month, we have seen the ENSO centralize quite a bit, which is good thing for snow lovers. What this means is the warmer ocean temperatures have moved away from the South American Coast and closer to the International Dateline. During an El Nino, the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream gets cranking, allowing for abundance of moisture to come out of the Gulf of Mexico. This usually leads to the south being very wet and brings the potential for big storms in our neck of the woods.
So, does a warm November automatically mean a warm and snow-less Winter? NO. I am sure many people of the Lower Susquehanna Valley will remember the Winter of 2009-2010 where we had a total of 3 major snow storms that year, 2 of which happened in one week! Many snowfall records were shattered that year. That's beside the point, however take a look at the November 2009 temperature anomaly.
So, does a warm November automatically mean a warm and snow-less Winter? NO. I am sure many people of the Lower Susquehanna Valley will remember the Winter of 2009-2010 where we had a total of 3 major snow storms that year, 2 of which happened in one week! Many snowfall records were shattered that year. That's beside the point, however take a look at the November 2009 temperature anomaly.
It was very warm, similar to this November. Now, this does not mean we see a repeat of that Winter, however it is to prove my point that a warm November, does not automatically mean a warm and snow-less Winter.
My top 3 analogues for this upcoming Winter season have remained the same over the last month. If I had to rank them from 1-3, 1957-58 would be my top analogue, #2 would be 1982-83, and #3 would be 1972-73. Below is what the temperatures across the nation looked when you blend those 3 anomalies.
My top 3 analogues for this upcoming Winter season have remained the same over the last month. If I had to rank them from 1-3, 1957-58 would be my top analogue, #2 would be 1982-83, and #3 would be 1972-73. Below is what the temperatures across the nation looked when you blend those 3 anomalies.
Yellow/Oranges/Reds are your warmer than average temps, while greens/blues are your colder than average temps. Below is then what the precipitation looked like during those analog years.
A negative NAO, not only locks in the Cold Air over the east, but is also slows down the Jet Stream significantly. For those that do not know, the Jet Stream is the wavy looking thing in the image above. The Jet Stream is the main driving force for all weather systems in the atmosphere. Allowing the Jet Stream to slow down, will cause much bigger and prolonged Winter Storms. This is a huge difference compared to last Winter. Last Winter we had multiple nickle and dime events. That is because we did not have a negative NAO! The Jet Stream was very fast moving.
End of technical discussion..time for the forecast.
Starting off with the month of December. As a whole, December will feature slightly above normal temperatures around these parts. However, this does not mean everyday will feature above normal temps. In fact, we will have some cold spells throughout the month, that if timed right, will lead to significant Winter Storms. Precipitation will be slightly above normal, while snowfall will be near normal.
December Temperature Forecast:
Now, no analogs are going to perfect as now two seasons are the same. However, I believe they give a good general idea of what we can expect this upcoming Winter.
A big player this upcoming Winter, that will more than likely happen is blocking up over Greenland, known as a Greenland block. This is often referred to as a negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation). Below is a diagram showing this.
A big player this upcoming Winter, that will more than likely happen is blocking up over Greenland, known as a Greenland block. This is often referred to as a negative NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation). Below is a diagram showing this.
A negative NAO, not only locks in the Cold Air over the east, but is also slows down the Jet Stream significantly. For those that do not know, the Jet Stream is the wavy looking thing in the image above. The Jet Stream is the main driving force for all weather systems in the atmosphere. Allowing the Jet Stream to slow down, will cause much bigger and prolonged Winter Storms. This is a huge difference compared to last Winter. Last Winter we had multiple nickle and dime events. That is because we did not have a negative NAO! The Jet Stream was very fast moving.
End of technical discussion..time for the forecast.
Starting off with the month of December. As a whole, December will feature slightly above normal temperatures around these parts. However, this does not mean everyday will feature above normal temps. In fact, we will have some cold spells throughout the month, that if timed right, will lead to significant Winter Storms. Precipitation will be slightly above normal, while snowfall will be near normal.
December Temperature Forecast:
December Precipitation Forecast:
During the month of January I expect this to be the transition month between warmer and stormy vs colder and stormy. So for the first half of the month expect temperatures to average slightly above normal, but during the second half I expect temperatures to average slightly below normal. In the end, expect near to slightly above normal temperatures during the month of January. The deep south with see the first freeze of the season during this month, as a result from the Jet Stream taking a dip to the south of our area. This will allow for our area and coastal areas to see slightly above normal precipitation. Towards the end of this month, blocking should begin to show up over Greenland, which will lead to a wild February.
January Temperature Forecast:
January Temperature Forecast:
January Precipitation Forecast:
February is the key month in this year's Winter Forecast. By this time, we should have blocking established over Greenland allowing for cold air over not only our region, but the deep south as well and the Jet Stream will slow down big time, creating large storm systems. Without trying to get any of you too excited, I will say February truly has the potential to make Winter lovers very happy. Temperatures will average below normal, while precipitation will average above normal. Snowfall will be above normal in our area, possibly well above normal in the southern states.
February Temperature Forecast:
What has the potential to be a "blockbuster" February, I do not see it lasting into March. In fact, this year I believe we see a rather quick ending to the Winter. I do not see this one dragging on into late March. March will average to be slightly warmer than normal, with average precipitation. As well as average to slightly below average snowfall.
March Temperature Forecast:
February Temperature Forecast:
February Precipitation Forecast:
March Temperature Forecast:
March Precipitation Forecast:
With the month by month breakdown done with, here is another map summarizing this Winter.
Region by Region breakdown. (Match the number with the description.)
Region 1 (Red) - Overall, not a Winter for snow lovers. Expect well above normal temperatures, with well below average snowfall.
Region 2 (Orange) - Expect mainly warmer conditions, with cold spells every now and then. Snowfall will be hard to come by during those cold spells, so expect slightly below average snowfall.
Region 3 (Light blue) - Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal. With a few big storms, this area will have no problem receiving their average snowfall.
Region 4 (Medium Blue) - Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with the exception of February. Expect less frequent storms, however the systems that do hit, will often be large. Expect slightly above average snowfall.
Region 5 (Dark Blue) - This area is my sweets spot if you are snow lover who lives in this area. Expect a much colder than average Winter will well above normal snowfall. Similar to region 4, do not expect frequent storms, however a couple big storms will put this area well above normal in terms of snowfall.
Region 6 (Pink) - If you live in this area, I am sorry to say that you are located in the middle of everything and could go either way between a warm and snow-less Winter and a cold and snowy Winter. It truly is a toss up. If you live in the southern part of this zone I would favor the cold/snowy, while if you live in the northern part of the pink zone, I would favor the warm/less snowy.
Region 7 (Purple) - This region will have no problem reaching their annual snowfall and then some. Expect a mainly colder than normal Winter with periods of warmth, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter.
Region 8 (Grey) - Nothing overpowers the other in this region. Expect average temperatures, with average snowfall.
Region 9 (Green) - Thanks to the active Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, be ready for a very wet and cold Winter. Average snowfall should be anticipated.
Finally the localized Winter Forecast for the viewing area.
Region 1 (Red) - Overall, not a Winter for snow lovers. Expect well above normal temperatures, with well below average snowfall.
Region 2 (Orange) - Expect mainly warmer conditions, with cold spells every now and then. Snowfall will be hard to come by during those cold spells, so expect slightly below average snowfall.
Region 3 (Light blue) - Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal. With a few big storms, this area will have no problem receiving their average snowfall.
Region 4 (Medium Blue) - Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with the exception of February. Expect less frequent storms, however the systems that do hit, will often be large. Expect slightly above average snowfall.
Region 5 (Dark Blue) - This area is my sweets spot if you are snow lover who lives in this area. Expect a much colder than average Winter will well above normal snowfall. Similar to region 4, do not expect frequent storms, however a couple big storms will put this area well above normal in terms of snowfall.
Region 6 (Pink) - If you live in this area, I am sorry to say that you are located in the middle of everything and could go either way between a warm and snow-less Winter and a cold and snowy Winter. It truly is a toss up. If you live in the southern part of this zone I would favor the cold/snowy, while if you live in the northern part of the pink zone, I would favor the warm/less snowy.
Region 7 (Purple) - This region will have no problem reaching their annual snowfall and then some. Expect a mainly colder than normal Winter with periods of warmth, especially in the 2nd half of the Winter.
Region 8 (Grey) - Nothing overpowers the other in this region. Expect average temperatures, with average snowfall.
Region 9 (Green) - Thanks to the active Sub-Tropical Jet Stream, be ready for a very wet and cold Winter. Average snowfall should be anticipated.
Finally the localized Winter Forecast for the viewing area.
Areas South and East of State College can expect warmer conditions with slightly above normal snowfall, more specifically up to 133%. For example, Harrisburg averages 31" of snow, this means we can expect up to 41" of snow this year. Meanwhile, State College North and West can expect warmer than average temperatures, with near normal snowfall.
Summary:
Do not expect any major storms in the month of December because any blocking will not be established until late January. However, the month of December, January, and February, all have the potential of above average snowfall (specifically the areas in the darker blue.) February has the chance for one or two "blockbuster" type storms that would make snow lovers happy. However, expect a quick turn around as we head into March.
Summary:
Do not expect any major storms in the month of December because any blocking will not be established until late January. However, the month of December, January, and February, all have the potential of above average snowfall (specifically the areas in the darker blue.) February has the chance for one or two "blockbuster" type storms that would make snow lovers happy. However, expect a quick turn around as we head into March.
Snowfall Predictions by location:
Harrisburg: 35-41"
York: 32-38"
Lancaster: 32-38"
State College: 46-52"
Philadelphia 26-32"
Let the fun begin!
-Chris
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