Thursday, March 17, 2016

Heavy, Wet Snowstorm Targeting Central PA Overnight Saturday Through Sunday

After a very warm first few weeks of March, it is becoming apparent that our area will be dealing with a late-season snowstorm this weekend. A coastal storm will be coming up the East Coast Saturday, spreading precipitation into our area before sunrise Sunday Morning.

There is the chance the precip starts off as light rain, but once the intensity picks up, the will help cool the column and deliver with it a heavy and wet snowfall. The heaviest of the snow will arrive after noon Sunday and last through the evening hours. All precip should exit the area by Midnight Monday.

So we know there will be a storm...the question is how much snow will accumulate. There is a MASSIVE difference between snow falling and snow accumulating. Unfortunately, for snow lovers, the timing is not the best. Having the bulk of the snow fall during the daylight hours of Sunday, this will help limit the snowfall accumulations to some degree. However, if the snow falls fast enough, it will be able to accumulate without a problem. For example, you may measure 3 inches of snow 2PM Sunday, it continues to snow for the next few hours, you go out to measure at 6 PM, and you measure 3 inches again. This results from snow falling, but not rapidly enough to accumulate...again why I stress the difference between snow falling and snow accumulating.

Latest GFS:
GFS is the least aggressive with how close the coastal storm hugs the coast, however it still overspreads snow into our area and delivers light to moderate accumulations. A far cry from what the CMC and Euro are printing out.

Latest Canadian (CMC):
The Canadian is the closest to the coast with the coastal storm. This would deliver a major wet snowstorm to our area, with mixing issues nearing our area.

Latest Euro: The latest Euro is in between the GFS and CMC, but it still delivers a major, wet snowstorm to our area, although the mixing issues remain South and East of I-95.

My thoughts:

REGION A- Accumulating snow possible...mixing issues likely.

REGION B- Greatest threat for accumulating snow, perhaps significant. Will have to watch out for isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on power-lines and tree limbs. Mixing issues possible.

Region C- All snow. Few inches possible. Too far away from the surface low to get in on the more significant accumulations.

Keep it here to my Facebook Page for the latest..should be an interesting storm to track>>>>Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris


Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Light To Moderate Snow Event Headed Our Way Thursday Night Into Friday

It is already Meteorological Spring, yet a Winter Storm is targeting our area Thursday Night into Friday.

A weak area of low pressure will be dropping out of the Mid-West and will gather a little bit of strength over Kentucky before heading Northeast from there, where it will die out somewhere over West Virginia and Southwest PA. From there, the energy will transfer to the coast, as a coastal low rapidly gains strength. This is the "wildcard" that I mentioned in my video from this morning. All guidance now has this "wildcard" low pressure remaining well out to sea, leaving the coastal areas brushed by it with minimal impacts.

I like what the latest NAM is printing out in terms of the precipitation field:
With it now being March, the Sun-Angle plays a critical role in determining whether the snow accumulates or not. Fortunately for snow lovers, the majority of this snowfall will occur during the overnight hours Thursday Night into Friday Morning. This will allow the snowfall to accumulate even on the roadways.

Speaking of timing, the snowfall should arrive here after 8 PM Thursday Night and will exit the region around Noon-Time Friday. Heaviest of the snow will occur overnight, so expect travel headaches during the morning commute Friday Morning.

FIRST CALL:

Region A: (Includes all of Dauphin County). 2 to as much as 5 inches of snowfall. I could see this storm playing out where center city Harrisburg receives 2 inches, while areas just to the North in higher elevation receives 5 inches.

Region B: A coating to 2 inches of snowfall is expected. For areas to the south, temps will hover around the 32 degree mark which will allow for the snow to struggle to accumulate. Areas further to the East, guidance is suggesting the precip to weaken as the weak area of low pressure transfers to the coastal that heads way out to sea.