Significant To Major Winter Storm To Impact The Area Monday After Into Tuesday

After this Weekend's Major Arctic Outbreak, a significant to major Winter Storm is taking aim towards the mid-state.

A low pressure system will develop in the South on Sunday, then will take the turn Northward and reach our area by Monday Afternoon. The exact track of this storm is a major uncertainty right now. However, all models agree that there will be at least an initial period of snow for just about everybody.

This Afternoon's GFS Run:

GFS has a 997 low pressure centered over the DELMARVA which is an ideal spot for an all snow event for Central PA. Verbatim, Harrisburg goes from Snow to Rain to Sleet and then back to Snow...This will be a mess of a storm.

The Canadian Model:

The Canadian is much further East and Weaker...right now this an outlier. I don't by the solution right now. However, it would be an all snow event for South Central PA. Again don't buy it.

Today's European Run is much more amped, it starts us out with a period of snow, then quickly goes to rain for pretty much the whole state. This is the furthest west solution right now..I don't buy this solution right now either. I think the GFS is a solid middle ground solution.

With that being said, here is my first call map. Amounts will be included Tomorrow.

Region A: This area will be far enough North&West to remain primarily all snow. Heavy snow accumulation possible.

Region B: This area includes most of us. There will be a period of snow, that will change to ice, and eventually rain. Moderate snowfall accumulation possible before the change-over. Light glaze of ice possible as well.

Period C: This area will start off as snow, quickly then change to rain. Light snowfall accumulation possible.

This will be a longggg weekend of tracking, please keep it here to my Facebook Page: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Frigid Temperatures For This Weekend

The snow that fell yesterday, is here to stay. Not only am I expecting the mid-state to reach close to record breaking temperatures this Weekend, I am also keeping my eye on a potential Winter Storm for the early part of next week.

Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get out of the teens and in some elevated areas, the single digits.

Take a look at how temperatures will feel like Saturday Afternoon, known as the Wind Chill Factor:

Brrr....Temperatures Saturday Afternoon will feel like below 0..in fact well below 0.

Actual temperatures plummet to near 0 degrees Saturday Night. This will leave the "real feel" temp Saturday Night and Sunday Morning dangerously cold:

The real feel temps will range between negative 15 and negative 25 degrees for the area. Colder as you head into the Poconos.

This is an urgent request that you bring in all your pets inside this weekend. I hate to say it, but they will die if you leave them out in these temperatures. Also, be sure to check in on your elderly neighbors, family members, and friends.

If you have any outdoor plans this weekend, please note if your skin is exposed to these temperatures for more than 30 minutes, you will be exposed to frostbite...

The next storm potential is between Monday (2/15) and Wednesday (2/17). Too early for specifics, however it looks like a fairly significant system will be targeting our region during this time. At this point I do not know whether it will be rain or snow..or even ice. The only thing I do know, is the time-frame and that it looks like a large system. I will have more updates as we get closer.

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-Chris

FINAL UPDATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS

As I sit here and review the latest guidance, it is becoming clear the Inverted Trough is aiming to setup shop right over SCPA and SEPA. All major guidance has this to some degree..GFS/CMC/EURO/UKIE. Honestly, it is kind of a relief to have some kind of model agreement.

With that being said, Inverted Troughs are nearly impossible to predict, so we will not truly know until the precipitation is pretty much right on our door step Monday Evening.

Look for the snow to start to fall after 7 PM this Evening and last throughout the day Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Snow may stop at times and be heavy at times.

Updated Map:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected, localized areas up to 12 inches.

Region B: Still remaining with 2 to 5 inches for our area. However, notice the dotted area has changed a bit since my previous call. Again, this area includes all of SCPA and SEPA. Anywhere inside this dotted area, has the chance to over-perform by a large margin. Some locations in this dotted area will receive a double digit snowfall. 

Region C: Less than 2 inches of snowfall. Notice the dotted line has extend into parts of this region.

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-Chris 

SECOND CALL ON SNOW TOTALS

There is no doubt in my mind there will be surprises involved with this storm. Areas that are only expected to receive 2 to 5 inches of snow, may receive 10 inches of snow. It all depends where the inverted trough sets up. In case you missed my explanation of what an inverted trough is, it is basically a localized area that receives steady/heavy snow for several hours, while other areas around it just receive light snow. Which that is all many of us will receive...

GFS remains on its own with how aggressive it is with snow totals. I do not see anybody receiving more than 10 inches from this storm and that would be very localized. All other guidance is pretty much locked in on a widespread light to moderate snowfall.

Timing: Snow will begin to fall Monday Night, after 7 PM and will not officially end until 12 AM Wednesday Morning. Snow will fall lightly and even at times stop. This is a long duration-light snowfall event.

Updated map:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region B: 2 to 5 inches of snowfall is expected. Areas in the dotted area, is where I think the Inverted Trough may setup. And yes this includes all of Dauphin County. Somewhere in the dotted area, will receive a "surprise" snowfall. Localized areas may see up to 10 inches of snow. I stress the word localized. Most people will fall within the 2 to 5 inch range.

Region C: Less than 2 inches of snow.

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Enjoy the Super Bowl and keep it here for the latest!

-Chris 

FIRST CALL ON THE EARLY WEEK SNOWSTORM

Another big headache is in the forecast for not only people that have to travel early this week, but also the forecasters themselves. At the same time, for snow lovers, things are getting a bit more interesting for the possibility of a more significant snowfall.

A clipper system will pass through the region, beginning Monday afternoon, as the snowfall will spread from West to East.

The image above is valid Monday Evening. Snow should start to fly in the air over Dauphin County after 4 PM Monday and will continue, steady at times, through late Tuesday Night and possibly even into early Wednesday Morning.

There will be lulls in the action at times, but this will technically be a 24 hour snowstorm. The lulls and light snowfall rates, will help keep totals from being "epic". If you are reading this from south of Baltimore through Southern New Jersey, rainfall mixing in will keep totals down.

There will be a "wild card" in this snowstorm. There will be an Inverted Trough involved, in English, there will be an area that receives a consistent period of heavy snowfall for several hours. Where this sets up, determines who can see double digit snowfall totals. Because it is 48 hours from the start of this storm, it is too early to determine where exactly the Inverted Trough sets up. Inverted Troughs are extremely hard to predict and we will likely not know where it will set up until about 12 hours prior to the storm occurring.

With that being said, here's the first look at my predicted snow totals:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall expected.
Region B: 2 to 5 inches of snowfall expected.
Region C: Less than 2 inches of snowfall expected.

My forecasts Tomorrow and Monday will include where the Inverted Trough may setup. Right now I have too low of confidence to included the Inverted Trough.

I will leave you with this snow lovers, the latest GFS shows the Inverted Trough setting shop right over SCPA and Southeast PA.

Verbatim the GFS would be a 10 to 15 inch snowfall for Dauphin County. That is not my forecast, as my forecast is only for 2 to 5 inches, however this shows you all what the Inverted Trough can do to the snow totals we eventually end up with.

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-Chris 

Sneaky Snowstorm For Some

 A sneaky snowstorm that I mentioned earlier this morning in my video will impact Eastern areas of PA/NJ/DE/MD/Long Island..and the storm has trended so far Northwest that even portions of SCPA may wake up to a coating of snowfall Tomorrow Morning.

For the whole coverage area, snow will break out after 3 AM and last through Noon.

Region A: Snow showers are possible...this has the chance of clipper Southeast Dauphin County. No accumulation is expected in this zone.

Region B: A coating to 1 inch of snowfall is expected.

Region C: 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region D: 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected.

Due to the timing of this storm, expect school delays and even cancellations for those East of our area. If you have any plans to the coastal regions, I would avoid travelling until at least Saturday if you are able to.

Early next week..Mon-Wed time-frame offers a better chance of a more widespread, possibly significant snowfall to the mid-state. More details on that coming Tomorrow.

-Chris

Warmth and Flooding This Week, Two Winter Storms Possible Next Week.

Over the last week or so, the melting process from the historic snowstorm has been quite steady, which is good news. However, most locations around the area still have anywhere between 6 and even 12 inches of snowfall on the ground, and of course those huge snow piles in parking lots and on the side of the roads. This gets the attention to forecasters out there because Wednesday will not only feature temperatures approaching the upper 50s to even 60 degrees, in some locations out ahead of a cold front, it will also feature a period of heavy rain and even thunderstorms. Because of this, the National Weather Service out of State College has issued a FLOOD WATCH which is in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. River flooding should not be an issue, but smaller creeks and streams may flood over their banks significantly, especially in flood prone areas.

Wednesday High Temps:

Don't be fooled in the image, many of us already peaked to near 60 degrees West of the Susquehanna River. In that particular image, the Cold front is sitting right over our region.

Here is a look at the rainfall valid 1 PM Wednesday:

Notice the oranges and reds...that is indicating embedded thunderstorms along this cold front, which will lead to bursts of heavier rain and potentially damaging winds. The showers will arrive here between 4 AM and 7 AM Wednesday Morning and last until about 4 PM. The worst of the rain will be between 10 AM and 2 PM. Rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with pockets of 3 inches.

My attention then turns to next week, where I am beginning to see the possibility of two separate Winter Storms occurring, one being Monday Night (2/8) into Tuesday (2/9) and another storm late Wednesday (2/10) into Thursday (2/11).

For the first storm, a low pressure will be developing in the Southeast, and will try to make the turn up the coast. Whether it tracks right over us, versus a couple hundred miles offshore makes a huge difference whether we see rain, snow, or nothing at all. The latest GFS is the "Middle ground" solution currently. The image below is valid for late Monday Night.

Verbatim, the Lower Susquehanna Valley would be talking about a plow-able snowstorm. Nothing like the blizzard, however still a significant amount. The Canadian model has a low pressure tracking further inland, and delivers rain to our area, while places like State College and northward see accumulating snowfall. The European model keeps the system far enough offshore, we just see some light snowfall, turning to a light rainfall. If I had to put percentages out, I would say 70% for a storm, 30% for no storm.

Our next storm potential comes just a day later...guidance is split right now whether another low pressure creeps up the coast out of the Gulf of Mexico, or a clipper system redevelops and rapidly deepens somewhere in the Northeast. At this point, it is hard to talk about this storm with specifics, but this storm has better potential of delivering a more significant punch...but as it stands right now, it looks like areas further inland, and North as well have the better shot at seeing a substantial Winter Storm from this system than we do. A lot will change over the next 9 days...for snow lovers, you never want to be in the bulls-eye 9 days out.

The latest GFS right now is hinting at a period of snow for the second storm, but it is rather on its own for now with this solution.

That image is valid for Wednesday Afternoon. Like I said previously, guidance is really split on that storm. The upper air pattern would favor a track inland..near I-95, which would put our area right on the rain/snow line..so that's my preliminary thoughts regarding that system.

Summary: High temps of near 60 degrees and heavy rains Wednesday will lead to moderate and even significant flooding for some areas. Next week features two Winter Storm chances..Late Monday/Tuesday...and Wednesday/Thursday. This will be a long week of tracking, so make sure you keep it here.

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-Chris