Warmth and Flooding This Week, Two Winter Storms Possible Next Week.

Over the last week or so, the melting process from the historic snowstorm has been quite steady, which is good news. However, most locations around the area still have anywhere between 6 and even 12 inches of snowfall on the ground, and of course those huge snow piles in parking lots and on the side of the roads. This gets the attention to forecasters out there because Wednesday will not only feature temperatures approaching the upper 50s to even 60 degrees, in some locations out ahead of a cold front, it will also feature a period of heavy rain and even thunderstorms. Because of this, the National Weather Service out of State College has issued a FLOOD WATCH which is in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. River flooding should not be an issue, but smaller creeks and streams may flood over their banks significantly, especially in flood prone areas.

Wednesday High Temps:

Don't be fooled in the image, many of us already peaked to near 60 degrees West of the Susquehanna River. In that particular image, the Cold front is sitting right over our region.

Here is a look at the rainfall valid 1 PM Wednesday:

Notice the oranges and reds...that is indicating embedded thunderstorms along this cold front, which will lead to bursts of heavier rain and potentially damaging winds. The showers will arrive here between 4 AM and 7 AM Wednesday Morning and last until about 4 PM. The worst of the rain will be between 10 AM and 2 PM. Rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with pockets of 3 inches.

My attention then turns to next week, where I am beginning to see the possibility of two separate Winter Storms occurring, one being Monday Night (2/8) into Tuesday (2/9) and another storm late Wednesday (2/10) into Thursday (2/11).

For the first storm, a low pressure will be developing in the Southeast, and will try to make the turn up the coast. Whether it tracks right over us, versus a couple hundred miles offshore makes a huge difference whether we see rain, snow, or nothing at all. The latest GFS is the "Middle ground" solution currently. The image below is valid for late Monday Night.

Verbatim, the Lower Susquehanna Valley would be talking about a plow-able snowstorm. Nothing like the blizzard, however still a significant amount. The Canadian model has a low pressure tracking further inland, and delivers rain to our area, while places like State College and northward see accumulating snowfall. The European model keeps the system far enough offshore, we just see some light snowfall, turning to a light rainfall. If I had to put percentages out, I would say 70% for a storm, 30% for no storm.

Our next storm potential comes just a day later...guidance is split right now whether another low pressure creeps up the coast out of the Gulf of Mexico, or a clipper system redevelops and rapidly deepens somewhere in the Northeast. At this point, it is hard to talk about this storm with specifics, but this storm has better potential of delivering a more significant punch...but as it stands right now, it looks like areas further inland, and North as well have the better shot at seeing a substantial Winter Storm from this system than we do. A lot will change over the next 9 days...for snow lovers, you never want to be in the bulls-eye 9 days out.

The latest GFS right now is hinting at a period of snow for the second storm, but it is rather on its own for now with this solution.

That image is valid for Wednesday Afternoon. Like I said previously, guidance is really split on that storm. The upper air pattern would favor a track inland..near I-95, which would put our area right on the rain/snow line..so that's my preliminary thoughts regarding that system.

Summary: High temps of near 60 degrees and heavy rains Wednesday will lead to moderate and even significant flooding for some areas. Next week features two Winter Storm chances..Late Monday/Tuesday...and Wednesday/Thursday. This will be a long week of tracking, so make sure you keep it here.

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-Chris