Timing: Snow showers overspread the area after 11 AM and will become steady after 2 PM. The transition between snow and freezing rain will likely take place between 5 PM and 8 PM. Taking a general blend of all model guidance and current observations, the freezing rain should turn to plain rain between 10 PM and Midnight Tuesday Morning. This is critical...if we can hang onto the freezing temps a little bit longer than expected, Central PA could be in for a large icing event. However, as current guidance shows, a rather quick transition to plain rain will keep ice accretion only a minor level.
Final Forecast:
Region A: Snow to start off, heavy at times. 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected. Changing to sleet/freezing rain to rain. Minor icing expected.
Region B: Snow to start off, 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is expected. The snow will change to sleet/freezing rain to plain rain. Rainfall amounts may exceed 1". Flooding is possible Tuesday.
Region C: A few hours of snow will transition to brief icing to rain. Snowfall amounts will remain under 2 inches. Rainfall amounts may exceed 1". Flooding is also possible on the day Tuesday.
**Dotted line**: Areas in the dotted line have the potential of seeing a significant icing event IF guidance is currently too warm. If temperatures hang around the freezing mark a few hours longer than anticipated, this region may deal with ice accretion of a quarter inch, which is certainly enough to cause scattered power outages and could bring down large tree limbs. The icing event is certainly the WILD CARD for this storm, as it is a bit unclear of how quickly our area transitions to plain rain.
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Stay safe! -Chris
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