As many of you probably already heard, there is a chance for a Winter Storm(s) next week. Before I get into the details of that threat, this weekend will feature some of the warmest temperatures the mid-state has experienced in quite some time. Temperatures Tomorrow will have highs in the middle 50s, with some areas possibly approaching the 60 degree mark, especially closer to the PA/MD border.
Sunday high temps will still reach 50, however a clipper-like system will be passing through the area dropping temps back into the 30s. As of now, expect just the chance of some light rain. There is a chance for the rain to change-over to snow as the system leaves the region. I'm not totally buying that, unless you live north of I-80. Even there, accumulations will be limited to under a couple inches. Back in SCPA, expect little to no accumulation if the rain does end as snow Sunday Night.
Now to the main event...Guidance has come into an agreement that we will have to watch two separate systems next week. One Tuesday and another Wednesday into Thursday.
There is sooooo much model disagreement right now, that I am not even going to bother to post them.
What I can tell you are the possible scenarios we are looking at.
Scenario #1: The first storm arrives here Tuesday, takes a track right on top of Central PA delivering with it rainfall. This storm takes most of the energy away from storm #2, that storm #2 is basically non-existent.
Scenario #2: The first storm takes a track and hugs the coast, putting our area on the cold side of the storm. This track would deliver at least a moderate snowfall for the region. Taking a less amplified track, leaves more energy for the second storm to have time to develop. The second storm follows the path of the first storm, hugs the coast, and delivers another moderate snowfall for the mid-state. The combination of the two would lead to accumulations well into the double digits.
Scenario #3: Instead of having two separate lows, these two lows phase and create a much bigger system. If these two systems were to phase, this would lead to a warmer and further west solution. This would likely lead to a rainstorm for us, while areas in Western Ohio receive a major snowstorm.
Scenario #4: Both the first system and the second system remain weak and take a track right along the coast. With a weaker system, heights along the coast are able to rise as the storms approach. This would likely lead to a snow to rain event for both storm #1 and #2 with little to no accumulations.
Summary: All options are on the table. I probably will not begin to get a better understanding of what is coming next week until about Sunday, but I will keep you all updated on my Facebook page with the latest>>>>> Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!
-Chris
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