FIRST CALL ON THE EARLY WEEK SNOWSTORM

Another big headache is in the forecast for not only people that have to travel early this week, but also the forecasters themselves. At the same time, for snow lovers, things are getting a bit more interesting for the possibility of a more significant snowfall.

A clipper system will pass through the region, beginning Monday afternoon, as the snowfall will spread from West to East.

The image above is valid Monday Evening. Snow should start to fly in the air over Dauphin County after 4 PM Monday and will continue, steady at times, through late Tuesday Night and possibly even into early Wednesday Morning.

There will be lulls in the action at times, but this will technically be a 24 hour snowstorm. The lulls and light snowfall rates, will help keep totals from being "epic". If you are reading this from south of Baltimore through Southern New Jersey, rainfall mixing in will keep totals down.

There will be a "wild card" in this snowstorm. There will be an Inverted Trough involved, in English, there will be an area that receives a consistent period of heavy snowfall for several hours. Where this sets up, determines who can see double digit snowfall totals. Because it is 48 hours from the start of this storm, it is too early to determine where exactly the Inverted Trough sets up. Inverted Troughs are extremely hard to predict and we will likely not know where it will set up until about 12 hours prior to the storm occurring.

With that being said, here's the first look at my predicted snow totals:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall expected.
Region B: 2 to 5 inches of snowfall expected.
Region C: Less than 2 inches of snowfall expected.

My forecasts Tomorrow and Monday will include where the Inverted Trough may setup. Right now I have too low of confidence to included the Inverted Trough.

I will leave you with this snow lovers, the latest GFS shows the Inverted Trough setting shop right over SCPA and Southeast PA.

Verbatim the GFS would be a 10 to 15 inch snowfall for Dauphin County. That is not my forecast, as my forecast is only for 2 to 5 inches, however this shows you all what the Inverted Trough can do to the snow totals we eventually end up with.

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-Chris