Last night, I was concerned that our area might escape the significant snowfall because the European Model and it's Ensembles were keeping the heaviest precip south of the region. Well the latest run now pushes the heavier precip back into our neck of the woods.
Take a look at the comparison of the European Ensemble mean from last night vs Today's run.
Click on the image to zoom in...notice the darker greens how much further they make it up into PA than last night. This is a great sign for snow lovers.
However, there is still some worries out there. With this storm, there will be a severe cut-off. For example, Southern Dauphin has the chance to double those amounts in Northern Dauphin County if things set up like they potentially could. We will not know until the storm is crawling up the coast. This will be a very important now-cast situation.
GFS shows this cut-off well, however it is far enough North, that all of Dauphin County survives the cut-off.
Regardless, I do not see us getting away with absolutely no snowfall. I would be worried if lived near the State College area, rather than Harrisburg.
With all that being said, here is my latest thoughts.
Region A: Best chance to see 20 or more inches of snow.
Region B: 14-20 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region C: 8-14 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region D: 4-8 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region E: Coating to 4 inches of snowfall is expected.
TIMING: SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 9 PM FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAPER OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
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-Chris
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