Two Storms This Weekend, Another Looming For Next Week

To all the snow lovers out there, this post will make you cringe a little bit. Over the last few days in the Mid-State, we have been waking up to temperatures below 15 degrees, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. But...where is the precipitation?

The precipitation will enter our region late Friday Night into Saturday Morning in the form of rain because by then, our temperatures will support nothing but rain. Guidance is trying to suggest that higher elevated areas see a mix, I am not buying it. Expect a light rain event beginning late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

Here is the surface map valid Friday Night per the GFS:

Again not buying any of the pink that is showing up...below is a look at the rain totals for our area:

All of us should remain below a quarter inch of rainfall. Another thing to note, this will be a quick hitter. Depending on your sleep schedule, you may not even notice it rained overnight Friday/early Saturday Morning.

The second storm enters the region early Sunday Morning. This is a much more potent system. Even though I never made an official forecast of this system, I honestly felt we had a good shot at seeing a snowstorm with this system thanks to ensemble guidance. But, over the last 48 hours or so, everything gave into a much further western track. This puts all of PA on the warm side of the system. This will be a full out rainstorm for all of PA.

Below is the GFS valid for Pre-dawn hours on Sunday Morning.

This is quite the rainstorm folks. Notice snow is not to be seen anywhere close to PA. You will have to travel to the U.P. of Michigan/Wisconsin to see snowfall from this system. And please..if you see any pages out there telling you this is a Winter Storm for PA, it is not. They are wish-casting...

Below is the rainfall amounts from this system per the GFS. Most guidance actually agrees our area will see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated locations receiving more than that.

This will be a 12 to 18 hour steady rain maker. If we are lucky, Sunday Evening the rain begins to clear out of the area.

On the backside of this system, the cold air wraps into the Northeast. Much like earlier this week, we will have below average temperatures for much of next week. With a trough over the region, I am keeping my eye on a possible storm that may round the trough and come up the coast. Take a look at the upper air pattern per the GFS:

There are two separate pieces of energy, both marked with X's. One over the Great Lakes and another down in the Southeast. Where these two energies merge remains to be seen. However, if they merge close enough to our area, we could see a snow event late Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame.

The Mid-Day GFS as seen above, was most aggressive with the phase. The Canadian model had no southern piece of energy, and the European model had both pieces of energy, but merged the two pieces of energy too late to really pack a punch for our area.

Here is a look at what the surface look like with the Mid-Day GFS:

This shows a substantial storm a little too far out to sea to really give us a significant snowfall. However, we still get grazed verbatim.

Now take a look at this evening's run of the GFS:

This run keeps the two energies completely separate which leads to virtually no storm. The difference of these two model runs are only 6 hours. The Mid-Day GFS initializes at 10:30 AM, while the evening's run of the GFS initializes at 4:30 PM. Look at how vastly different they are. This is what weather enthusiasts and meteorologists have to deal with all the time. This is why you also do not see meteorologists mentioning snowstorms as close as four days out. They are too scared to lose their job, because they know how fast guidance can change.

So what are my thoughts regarding Tuesday/Wednesday?

As of right now, I do not see these two systems phasing. Instead I think the northern stream dives a bit further south than currently modeled and is the dominant piece of energy. This allows the opportunity for a clipper event. It depends how far south the clipper tracks if we see any snowfall out of it. Typically, clippers deliver 1 to 3/3 to 6 inches of light fluffy snow.

Just to be clear, I am not calling for snowfall Tuesday Night into Wednesday at the moment. However, what I am calling is if there is a storm, it will be in the form of a Clipper, rather than two energies forming off the coast creating a much larger system.

-Chris