Storm Threats Increasing With Cold Air In Place

Let me start off by saying this, January looks like it will be polar opposite of what we saw in December. The upcoming pattern is looks very promising for Winter lovers.

COLD AIR IS NOW IN PLACE. After not seeing below average highs for nearly an entire month, the next 10 days looks to be around average temperatures at best. Early next week, Monday to Wednesday, high temps will struggle to reach the freezing mark for many.

In fact, here is the projected high temps from the GFS for Tuesday:

With cold air in place, our first threat appears to be around the 9th, which would be next Saturday. This would be a rather weak to at best moderate overrunning event. Temperatures may be borderline for snowfall vs rain. Latest GFS thinks we see a nice snowfall event. Euro is not as impressed. However, both ensembles of the GFS and Euro really like the idea of a nice light to moderate Winter Storm for next Saturday. I would put it at low confidence for now.

GFS from this afternoon showing the Jan 9th threat:

Now time to talk about a possible biggy...key word possible. Between Jan 9th and 10th a storm will get it's act together in the Gulf of Mexico and then try to track up the coast. This would then impact us between Jan 11th and 12th. All current operational guidance and ensemble members are showing a large storm. Whether it be large snowstorms or rainstorms it does not matter at this point. It is still roughly 10 days away. All that matters right now is storm versus no storm. Currently, I have moderate confidence that a big storm..whether it is rain or snow..will impact our region 11th/12th.

Again the GFS shows this well:

Right now we are looking at three different tracks to break it down simple enough for you all. Reading the tracks LEFT TO RIGHT the first track would be a huge rain maker for our area, the middle one would produce a major snowfall for us, then finally the last one would be a glancing hit or a complete miss for our area.

Again the GFS isn't on its own. All three major models show this. Here is the 12z Euro Ensemble mean. There are 52 members..so this would be the average position of the low among the 52.

A 1005mb low pressure sitting off the coast of the DelMarVa is pretty impressive for the Ensemble Mean.

Summary:

Very Cold for the next 10 days..at least.

Low confidence for a light to moderate storm next Saturday (January 9th).

Moderate confidence for a major storm between the 11th and 12th.

-Chris