A storm will gather its energy near Colorado mid-week, before taking a track towards the Gulf of Mexico. This allows the low pressure to gather more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before taking a track to the Northeast. In other words...a classic track for a Winter Storm.
Latest GFS:
GFS has a major storm sitting off the coast of Virginia early Saturday Morning. The latest run is just south enough to keep us out of the epic snows, however, compared to its previous run, this run was a big improvement. Verbatim, the GFS would lead to a 6-12" snowstorm, 6" for Northern Dauphin, 12" for Southern Dauphin. Again that is verbatim..not a forecast. Epic snows remain south of the Mason Dixon line, where areas near DC and Baltimore see 12-20" of snow.
Next up the Canadian:
The Canadian model has the major storm about 100 miles Northwest of where GFS has it. Again this is early Saturday Morning. Verbatim, the Canadian would bring epic snows to the Mid-State, while areas South and East of I-95 have mixing issues. Verbatim, this model would bring 14-20" to all of Central and Eastern PA.
Lastly we have the European Model:
I know it is not as easy to see, however it has a similar look to the Canadian model, but instead a colder solution with the low pressure sitting about 50 miles further East. This again would bring epic snows to the Mid-State. Verbatim this would lead to a 16-22" snowfall, with the Laurel Highlands approaching a whopping 30".
Summary: All models are indicating a major storm Friday Afternoon into Saturday. GFS keeps epic snows south, while still delivering 6-12" of snow, CMC and Euro are both epic solutions, delivering 14-22" of snow verbatim.
My thoughts? It is a wait and see kind of game for me. I laid it all out on the playing for you guys to see what I am looking at. PLEASE DO NOT TELL OTHERS "A BIG SNOWSTORM IS COMING THIS WEEKEND." Just wait until Tuesday before declaring that. A lot can and will change. However, I will say I like what I see for you snow lovers out there.
P.S. Find your yard sticks everybody....just kidding...for now.
If you see this article, then like my Facebook Page for updates regarding this potential Major Winter Storm: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!
-Chris
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