2nd Call On The Major Winter Storm Friday Night through Saturday

We are now a little over 48 hours away from a major Winter Storm impacting the Mid-State. Latest guidance continues to key on our area for a significant snowfall.

Last night, I was concerned that our area might escape the significant snowfall because the European Model and it's Ensembles were keeping the heaviest precip south of the region. Well the latest run now pushes the heavier precip back into our neck of the woods.

Take a look at the comparison of the European Ensemble mean from last night vs Today's run.

Click on the image to zoom in...notice the darker greens how much further they make it up into PA than last night. This is a great sign for snow lovers.

However, there is still some worries out there. With this storm, there will be a severe cut-off. For example, Southern Dauphin has the chance to double those amounts in Northern Dauphin County if things set up like they potentially could. We will not know until the storm is crawling up the coast. This will be a very important now-cast situation.

GFS shows this cut-off well, however it is far enough North, that all of Dauphin County survives the cut-off.

Regardless, I do not see us getting away with absolutely no snowfall. I would be worried if lived near the State College area, rather than Harrisburg.

With all that being said, here is my latest thoughts.

Region A: Best chance to see 20 or more inches of snow.
Region B: 14-20 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region C: 8-14 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region D: 4-8 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region E: Coating to 4 inches of snowfall is expected.




TIMING: SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 9 PM FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAPER OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

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-Chris

Major Winter Storm On The Way?

Alright before I get started here, I am going to show you a model by model breakdown of exactly what each of the three main weather models are showing for Friday (1/22) and Saturday (1/23).

A storm will gather its energy near Colorado mid-week, before taking a track towards the Gulf of Mexico. This allows the low pressure to gather more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before taking a track to the Northeast. In other words...a classic track for a Winter Storm.

Latest GFS:

GFS has a major storm sitting off the coast of Virginia early Saturday Morning. The latest run is just south enough to keep us out of the epic snows, however, compared to its previous run, this run was a big improvement. Verbatim, the GFS would lead to a 6-12" snowstorm, 6" for Northern Dauphin, 12" for Southern Dauphin. Again that is verbatim..not a forecast. Epic snows remain south of the Mason Dixon line, where areas near DC and Baltimore see 12-20" of snow.

Next up the Canadian:

The Canadian model has the major storm about 100 miles Northwest of where GFS has it. Again this is early Saturday Morning. Verbatim, the Canadian would bring epic snows to the Mid-State, while areas South and East of I-95 have mixing issues. Verbatim, this model would bring 14-20" to all of Central and Eastern PA.

Lastly we have the European Model:

I know it is not as easy to see, however it has a similar look to the Canadian model, but instead a colder solution with the low pressure sitting about 50 miles further East. This again would bring epic snows to the Mid-State. Verbatim this would lead to a 16-22" snowfall, with the Laurel Highlands approaching a whopping 30".

Summary: All models are indicating a major storm Friday Afternoon into Saturday. GFS keeps epic snows south, while still delivering 6-12" of snow, CMC and Euro are both epic solutions, delivering 14-22" of snow verbatim.

My thoughts? It is a wait and see kind of game for me. I laid it all out on the playing for you guys to see what I am looking at. PLEASE DO NOT TELL OTHERS "A BIG SNOWSTORM IS COMING THIS WEEKEND." Just wait until Tuesday before declaring that. A lot can and will change. However, I will say I like what I see for you snow lovers out there.

P.S. Find your yard sticks everybody....just kidding...for now.

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-Chris

Big Storm This Weekend Will Lead To More Rain

Beginning early Saturday Morning, while most of us are sleeping, rain will begin to develop from the South. There will be two separate lows to track, one, a low pressure that cuts through the Great Lakes into Canada, and another low that forms a significant coastal storm.

IF we did not have the low pressure in Southeast Canada and just had the coastal storm we would be talking about a significant snowstorm for our region. However, thanks to the low in SE Canada, warmer air is able to sneak into the region, helping this storm deliver rainfall.

Take a look at the latest GFS valid early Saturday Morning:

Whether the coastal storm takes a track closer to the coast, or further away from the coast will determine how much rainfall the Mid-State sees. If it takes a track to the right, we get brushed, if it takes a track to the left, we are in for a washout. I am favoring closer to the left track, unfortunately.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches. All rain should be out of the region by Saturday Evening.

When is our next chance for snow? Monday may offer some light snow showers, not looking too promising at the moment. Another potent storm is brewing between the 21st and 23rd. Too far out for details, but again, the trend this Winter for big storms, is for them to produce rainfall...

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-Chris

Final Call Map On Tomorrow's Clipper...Big Storm Looming For The Weekend?

No surprise here, a Clipper is on its way to deliver a light snowfall for many of us. Over the last 24 hours, I am becoming increasingly concerned that rather our area see a period of light steady snow, we see a line of squalls form. These snow squalls may deliver blinding snow for a period of 10 to 20 minutes then it is gone. If your local town receives one of these intense snow squalls, there is no doubt in my mind areas may over-perform in terms of accumulation. It is simply a wait and see game to see who gets what at this point.

The latest NAM model shows the line of squalls forming to our West quite well.

Timing: The timing has sped up a little bit. Some light snow showers are possible between 10 AM and 2 PM. A heavy Snow Squall line may whip through the area between 2 PM and 6 PM, deliver with it our accumulating snow.

There is still a chance that the mountains "eat up" a lot of the precipitation before making it to Dauphin County, however I still think enough squalls survive the mountains for many of us too see flakes flying in the air. For my final call map, I trimmed the Coating to 1 inch area a bit on the southern edge. Nothing else has changed.

Yes folks, there will be a big storm this weekend. As of right now, it is an all rain event for everyone in PA..that is how I see it at the moment. Timing would be Saturday Morning through Saturday Night. Here is the setup.

In the picture below, you will a low pressure cut up through the Ohio Valley, this low pressure then dies out and reforms a second low off the coast of Jersey, then heads Northeastward from there.

In order for our area to see snowfall, we want the primary low cutting up through the Ohio Valley to die out over the state of Kentucky, then transfer off the coast of Southeast Virginia. If this occurs, which is not looking likely at the moment, a significant snowfall would be possible across the Mid-State.

We still have a good 4 days for this storm to trend colder, but as of now it is another rain maker. So snow lovers, make sure you appreciate every flake that falls Tomorrow...keep your fingers crossed for the weekend.

With a big storm coming this weekend, make sure you have my page liked on Facebook ---> Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

Thanks in advance. -Chris

First Call On Snowfall Amounts Tuesday Night

A clipper system will take a track over the Great Lakes to our North on Tuesday, delivering with it periods of snow showers and squalls to the Mid-State Tuesday Evening into Tuesday Night. The latest GFS still continues to show a steady snowfall for much of the state:

I do not think that is the case for many of us. I am starting to believe the mountains to our West will break up the snowfall, leading to snow showers and squalls rather than a solid area of snowfall.

What does this mean? Not everyone East of the Mountains will see accumulating snowfall. However, still many of us will see snow coat the ground Tuesday Evening/Night. Folks in the Poconos and NEPA will have a better shot than us in the Lower Susquehanna Valley to see snow stick to the ground as the clipper gets a bit more energy as it heads off the coast.

With that being said here is my snow map. Snow showers will begin Tuesday Mid-Afternoon and will continue on and off for the rest of the Evening. (The timing is for Dauphin County only. Areas to the West will start and end sooner, while areas to the East it will start and end later.)

Click on the image to view it larger.

Region A (Dark Blue): 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region B (Lighter Blue): Coating to 1 inch of snowfall is expected. If the Mountains do break up the snowfall, some locations in this region may not see much, if any snow. I will continue to monitor that situation over the next 24 hours.

Next Weekend:

Big storm coming Jan 16th-18th?? Yes, guidance is indicating a storm system in this time period, but I would not get too excited if I were a snow lover (which I am).  Guidance will continue to waffle back and forth over the next few days. If you hear that a blizzard is coming, that is all HYPE. Do not believe it. It all depends on the track whether we see Snow or Rain...the trend has been Rain this Winter...we will see if that continues. Fingers crossed snow lovers.

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First Widespread Snowfall Tuesday Evening Into Wednesday Morning

Before I get started talking about the clipper system impacting our region next week, we still have to get passed Sunday's rainstorm. It is still looking like a complete washout for our area...

Per the GFS, hefty rains will be setting shop over the Mid-State Sunday Morning into the Afternoon hours. The rain will begin to clear out after 10 PM Sunday Night.

Darker greens indicating the heavier rain in the above image. Now below is the total rainfall from this system. Still going with a general 1 to 2 inches of rain. Minor street flooding is likely. 

On the backside of this system, the winds will be blowing out of Canada delivering with it much colder air and even wrap around snowfall for the Northwest part of the state late Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Snow amounts may reach up to 2 inches for those in the blue shading. The Lower Susquehanna Valley is not included in this, although back-end flurries are not out of the question. 

Over the last 24 hours, after reviewing guidance, I am becoming fairly confident that our first widespread snowfall of the year will be here Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Widespread does not automatically mean significant. This will be a clipper system that will dive down into the Great Lakes region, far south enough to deliver all of PA a period of light snowfall.

Picture below is valid Tuesday Night.

Now the question remains, will this just be your average clipper, or will it try to redevelop a low pressure system off the coast prolonging the snowfall? The GFS tries to do this. If it were to develop a little further south this run, it would of been a moderate snowfall for much of EPA/NJ. Still only light impacts for the Harrisburg area.

Picture below is valid early Wednesday Morning.

Notice the darker blues in Maryland and Southeast PA..that is the coastal trying to develop a prolonged period of snow. If these bands were to set up, perhaps a couple inches of snow may accumulate under whoever sees those bands of heavier snows. At the same time, notice the gaps to our west. This is a very quick hitter. We are looking at a 3-6 hour period of light snow. By the time most of us wake up Wednesday Morning it will be gone.

So how much snow will fall? I think many of us will fall under the coating to 1 inch category. Just enough to whiten up the ground for the first time this season. If you are reading this from Eastern PA and New Jersey, I would keep an eye out for an additional inch or two of snowfall. It depends how quickly the low pressure system redevelops off the coast.

-Chris

Two Storms This Weekend, Another Looming For Next Week

To all the snow lovers out there, this post will make you cringe a little bit. Over the last few days in the Mid-State, we have been waking up to temperatures below 15 degrees, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. But...where is the precipitation?

The precipitation will enter our region late Friday Night into Saturday Morning in the form of rain because by then, our temperatures will support nothing but rain. Guidance is trying to suggest that higher elevated areas see a mix, I am not buying it. Expect a light rain event beginning late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

Here is the surface map valid Friday Night per the GFS:

Again not buying any of the pink that is showing up...below is a look at the rain totals for our area:

All of us should remain below a quarter inch of rainfall. Another thing to note, this will be a quick hitter. Depending on your sleep schedule, you may not even notice it rained overnight Friday/early Saturday Morning.

The second storm enters the region early Sunday Morning. This is a much more potent system. Even though I never made an official forecast of this system, I honestly felt we had a good shot at seeing a snowstorm with this system thanks to ensemble guidance. But, over the last 48 hours or so, everything gave into a much further western track. This puts all of PA on the warm side of the system. This will be a full out rainstorm for all of PA.

Below is the GFS valid for Pre-dawn hours on Sunday Morning.

This is quite the rainstorm folks. Notice snow is not to be seen anywhere close to PA. You will have to travel to the U.P. of Michigan/Wisconsin to see snowfall from this system. And please..if you see any pages out there telling you this is a Winter Storm for PA, it is not. They are wish-casting...

Below is the rainfall amounts from this system per the GFS. Most guidance actually agrees our area will see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated locations receiving more than that.

This will be a 12 to 18 hour steady rain maker. If we are lucky, Sunday Evening the rain begins to clear out of the area.

On the backside of this system, the cold air wraps into the Northeast. Much like earlier this week, we will have below average temperatures for much of next week. With a trough over the region, I am keeping my eye on a possible storm that may round the trough and come up the coast. Take a look at the upper air pattern per the GFS:

There are two separate pieces of energy, both marked with X's. One over the Great Lakes and another down in the Southeast. Where these two energies merge remains to be seen. However, if they merge close enough to our area, we could see a snow event late Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame.

The Mid-Day GFS as seen above, was most aggressive with the phase. The Canadian model had no southern piece of energy, and the European model had both pieces of energy, but merged the two pieces of energy too late to really pack a punch for our area.

Here is a look at what the surface look like with the Mid-Day GFS:

This shows a substantial storm a little too far out to sea to really give us a significant snowfall. However, we still get grazed verbatim.

Now take a look at this evening's run of the GFS:

This run keeps the two energies completely separate which leads to virtually no storm. The difference of these two model runs are only 6 hours. The Mid-Day GFS initializes at 10:30 AM, while the evening's run of the GFS initializes at 4:30 PM. Look at how vastly different they are. This is what weather enthusiasts and meteorologists have to deal with all the time. This is why you also do not see meteorologists mentioning snowstorms as close as four days out. They are too scared to lose their job, because they know how fast guidance can change.

So what are my thoughts regarding Tuesday/Wednesday?

As of right now, I do not see these two systems phasing. Instead I think the northern stream dives a bit further south than currently modeled and is the dominant piece of energy. This allows the opportunity for a clipper event. It depends how far south the clipper tracks if we see any snowfall out of it. Typically, clippers deliver 1 to 3/3 to 6 inches of light fluffy snow.

Just to be clear, I am not calling for snowfall Tuesday Night into Wednesday at the moment. However, what I am calling is if there is a storm, it will be in the form of a Clipper, rather than two energies forming off the coast creating a much larger system.

-Chris

Storm Threats Increasing With Cold Air In Place

Let me start off by saying this, January looks like it will be polar opposite of what we saw in December. The upcoming pattern is looks very promising for Winter lovers.

COLD AIR IS NOW IN PLACE. After not seeing below average highs for nearly an entire month, the next 10 days looks to be around average temperatures at best. Early next week, Monday to Wednesday, high temps will struggle to reach the freezing mark for many.

In fact, here is the projected high temps from the GFS for Tuesday:

With cold air in place, our first threat appears to be around the 9th, which would be next Saturday. This would be a rather weak to at best moderate overrunning event. Temperatures may be borderline for snowfall vs rain. Latest GFS thinks we see a nice snowfall event. Euro is not as impressed. However, both ensembles of the GFS and Euro really like the idea of a nice light to moderate Winter Storm for next Saturday. I would put it at low confidence for now.

GFS from this afternoon showing the Jan 9th threat:

Now time to talk about a possible biggy...key word possible. Between Jan 9th and 10th a storm will get it's act together in the Gulf of Mexico and then try to track up the coast. This would then impact us between Jan 11th and 12th. All current operational guidance and ensemble members are showing a large storm. Whether it be large snowstorms or rainstorms it does not matter at this point. It is still roughly 10 days away. All that matters right now is storm versus no storm. Currently, I have moderate confidence that a big storm..whether it is rain or snow..will impact our region 11th/12th.

Again the GFS shows this well:

Right now we are looking at three different tracks to break it down simple enough for you all. Reading the tracks LEFT TO RIGHT the first track would be a huge rain maker for our area, the middle one would produce a major snowfall for us, then finally the last one would be a glancing hit or a complete miss for our area.

Again the GFS isn't on its own. All three major models show this. Here is the 12z Euro Ensemble mean. There are 52 members..so this would be the average position of the low among the 52.

A 1005mb low pressure sitting off the coast of the DelMarVa is pretty impressive for the Ensemble Mean.

Summary:

Very Cold for the next 10 days..at least.

Low confidence for a light to moderate storm next Saturday (January 9th).

Moderate confidence for a major storm between the 11th and 12th.

-Chris