Severe Weather Likely To Impact The Mid-Atlantic Sunday

For the most part, this Spring has been relatively quiet in terms of Severe Weather, but that will likely change, in a perhaps big way come Sunday.

Take a look at the expected CAPE values per the HIRES NAM model. To make it simple, the higher the number, the more likely it is for your area to receive thunderstorms. Once you begin to get into the deeper oranges and beyond, those are impressive numbers for this area, especially for the areas it is suggesting to be in the 3,000 to 4,000 j/kg range.

The image above is valid for late Sunday Afternoon/Early Evening. The corresponding simulated radar looks like this...

Notice how it is not a solid line of storms that forms, that is to be expected as this will not be a solid line of storms. It will be a broken line, hit or miss, type storms. But, the areas that do receive these storm cells have the potential of seeing a wicked storm. As this line heads southeast, the line will become stronger and there won't be as many gaps in the radar, and is why I put the southeast areas on my map in the greatest threat area.

Timing: Sunday Noon through 9 PM Sunday Night

Impacts: Torrential Rain, Large Hail, Gusty winds 60mph<, Isolated Tornadoes

If you have not already, like Dauphin County Weather on Facebook for more updates!>>>>Dauphin County Weather

-Chris

SNOWY APRIL SATURDAY, TIMING & DETAILS

I will have to be honest, I did not expect to be making another snow forecast this year. Yet here I am, the night of April 8th, posting a snow forecast for our area that shows light to moderate snowfall totals! Summer can't get here soon enough....

With that being said, Tomorrow certainly will not be anything major, however, anytime we receive accumulating snow in April, it is pretty abnormal. Considering we are more than a week into April, I do not expect much snow to stick any roadways Tomorrow. The snow will arrive here late enough for us not to worry about snow covered roads. Now, IF the snow arrives here a bit earlier before sunrise, then some roadways have a chance of being covered.

Light snow will overspread the area between 5 and 6 am. The intensity will pick up by 7, and between 7 am and 11 am that is where we can expect the bulk of whatever snow does fall. Between 1 PM and 4 PM, most of our snow will done and over with.

Check out the 7 AM future radar via the HRRR:

Notice how narrow that swath of snow is, and the huge dry slot over Southwest PA, this is what makes me concern that my snow forecast may 'bust'. Meaning areas that I have 1-3, or even 3-5, may not receive much of anything due to this dry slot. But, for those in the "line of fire" which in this image, our area is, the snow forecast totals will definitely verify, if not over-perform in the mountainous regions.

Here's to hoping this is my last snowfall forecast of the 2015-2016 Winter Season...which is now Spring...

-Chris 

Heavy, Wet Snowstorm Targeting Central PA Overnight Saturday Through Sunday

After a very warm first few weeks of March, it is becoming apparent that our area will be dealing with a late-season snowstorm this weekend. A coastal storm will be coming up the East Coast Saturday, spreading precipitation into our area before sunrise Sunday Morning.

There is the chance the precip starts off as light rain, but once the intensity picks up, the will help cool the column and deliver with it a heavy and wet snowfall. The heaviest of the snow will arrive after noon Sunday and last through the evening hours. All precip should exit the area by Midnight Monday.

So we know there will be a storm...the question is how much snow will accumulate. There is a MASSIVE difference between snow falling and snow accumulating. Unfortunately, for snow lovers, the timing is not the best. Having the bulk of the snow fall during the daylight hours of Sunday, this will help limit the snowfall accumulations to some degree. However, if the snow falls fast enough, it will be able to accumulate without a problem. For example, you may measure 3 inches of snow 2PM Sunday, it continues to snow for the next few hours, you go out to measure at 6 PM, and you measure 3 inches again. This results from snow falling, but not rapidly enough to accumulate...again why I stress the difference between snow falling and snow accumulating.

Latest GFS:

GFS is the least aggressive with how close the coastal storm hugs the coast, however it still overspreads snow into our area and delivers light to moderate accumulations. A far cry from what the CMC and Euro are printing out.

Latest Canadian (CMC):

The Canadian is the closest to the coast with the coastal storm. This would deliver a major wet snowstorm to our area, with mixing issues nearing our area.

Latest Euro: The latest Euro is in between the GFS and CMC, but it still delivers a major, wet snowstorm to our area, although the mixing issues remain South and East of I-95.

My thoughts:

REGION A- Accumulating snow possible...mixing issues likely.

REGION B- Greatest threat for accumulating snow, perhaps significant. Will have to watch out for isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on power-lines and tree limbs. Mixing issues possible.

Region C- All snow. Few inches possible. Too far away from the surface low to get in on the more significant accumulations.

Keep it here to my Facebook Page for the latest..should be an interesting storm to track>>>>Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Light To Moderate Snow Event Headed Our Way Thursday Night Into Friday

It is already Meteorological Spring, yet a Winter Storm is targeting our area Thursday Night into Friday.

A weak area of low pressure will be dropping out of the Mid-West and will gather a little bit of strength over Kentucky before heading Northeast from there, where it will die out somewhere over West Virginia and Southwest PA. From there, the energy will transfer to the coast, as a coastal low rapidly gains strength. This is the "wildcard" that I mentioned in my video from this morning. All guidance now has this "wildcard" low pressure remaining well out to sea, leaving the coastal areas brushed by it with minimal impacts.

I like what the latest NAM is printing out in terms of the precipitation field:

With it now being March, the Sun-Angle plays a critical role in determining whether the snow accumulates or not. Fortunately for snow lovers, the majority of this snowfall will occur during the overnight hours Thursday Night into Friday Morning. This will allow the snowfall to accumulate even on the roadways.

Speaking of timing, the snowfall should arrive here after 8 PM Thursday Night and will exit the region around Noon-Time Friday. Heaviest of the snow will occur overnight, so expect travel headaches during the morning commute Friday Morning.

FIRST CALL:

Region A: (Includes all of Dauphin County). 2 to as much as 5 inches of snowfall. I could see this storm playing out where center city Harrisburg receives 2 inches, while areas just to the North in higher elevation receives 5 inches.

Region B: A coating to 2 inches of snowfall is expected. For areas to the south, temps will hover around the 32 degree mark which will allow for the snow to struggle to accumulate. Areas further to the East, guidance is suggesting the precip to weaken as the weak area of low pressure transfers to the coastal that heads way out to sea.

Winter Storm Possible Next Week

As many of you probably already heard, there is a chance for a Winter Storm(s) next week. Before I get into the details of that threat, this weekend will feature some of the warmest temperatures the mid-state has experienced in quite some time. Temperatures Tomorrow will have highs in the middle 50s, with some areas possibly approaching the 60 degree mark, especially closer to the PA/MD border.

Sunday high temps will still reach 50, however a clipper-like system will be passing through the area dropping temps back into the 30s. As of now, expect just the chance of some light rain. There is a chance for the rain to change-over to snow as the system leaves the region. I'm not totally buying that, unless you live north of I-80. Even there, accumulations will be limited to under a couple inches. Back in SCPA, expect little to no accumulation if the rain does end as snow Sunday Night.

Now to the main event...Guidance has come into an agreement that we will have to watch two separate systems next week. One Tuesday and another Wednesday into Thursday.

There is sooooo much model disagreement right now, that I am not even going to bother to post them.

What I can tell you are the possible scenarios we are looking at.

Scenario #1: The first storm arrives here Tuesday, takes a track right on top of Central PA delivering with it rainfall. This storm takes most of the energy away from storm #2, that storm #2 is basically non-existent.

Scenario #2: The first storm takes a track and hugs the coast, putting our area on the cold side of the storm. This track would deliver at least a moderate snowfall for the region. Taking a less amplified track, leaves more energy for the second storm to have time to develop. The second storm follows the path of the first storm, hugs the coast, and delivers another moderate snowfall for the mid-state. The combination of the two would lead to accumulations well into the double digits.

Scenario #3: Instead of having two separate lows, these two lows phase and create a much bigger system. If these two systems were to phase, this would lead to a warmer and further west solution. This would likely lead to a rainstorm for us, while areas in Western Ohio receive a major snowstorm.

Scenario #4: Both the first system and the second system remain weak and take a track right along the coast. With a weaker system, heights along the coast are able to rise as the storms approach. This would likely lead to a snow to rain event for both storm #1 and #2 with little to no accumulations.

Summary: All options are on the table. I probably will not begin to get a better understanding of what is coming next week until about Sunday, but I will keep you all updated on my Facebook page with the latest>>>>> Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris 

Final Call On Tomorrow's Wintry Mix

Tomorrow's storm looks like it will be a bit warmer than previously expected. However, a period of snow will develop, before changing to freezing rain and then plain rain for all of the coverage area.

Timing: Snow showers overspread the area after 11 AM and will become steady after 2 PM. The transition between snow and freezing rain will likely take place between 5 PM and 8 PM. Taking a general blend of all model guidance and current observations, the freezing rain should turn to plain rain between 10 PM and Midnight Tuesday Morning. This is critical...if we can hang onto the freezing temps a little bit longer than expected, Central PA could be in for a large icing event. However, as current guidance shows, a rather quick transition to plain rain will keep ice accretion only a minor level.

Final Forecast:

Region A: Snow to start off, heavy at times. 4 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected. Changing to sleet/freezing rain to rain. Minor icing expected.

Region B: Snow to start off, 2 to 4 inches of snowfall is expected. The snow will change to sleet/freezing rain to plain rain. Rainfall amounts may exceed 1". Flooding is possible Tuesday.

Region C: A few hours of snow will transition to brief icing to rain. Snowfall amounts will remain under 2 inches. Rainfall amounts may exceed 1". Flooding is also possible on the day Tuesday.

**Dotted line**: Areas in the dotted line have the potential of seeing a significant icing event IF guidance is currently too warm. If temperatures hang around the freezing mark a few hours longer than anticipated, this region may deal with ice accretion of a quarter inch, which is certainly enough to cause scattered power outages and could bring down large tree limbs. The icing event is certainly the WILD CARD for this storm, as it is a bit unclear of how quickly our area transitions to plain rain.

Keep it my Facebook Page for the latest! Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

Stay safe! -Chris

2nd Call With Snowfall Amounts (Monday into Tuesday)

Only 48 hours out and yet again not much model consensus. However, it is clear that our area will start off as snow. How quickly it changes over to freezing rain, then plain rain is still an uncertainty.

Timing: Snow should overspread the mid-state between 10 am and 1 pm Monday and last for several hours. By the evening time, the transition to sleet and freezing rain will begin. By early Tuesday Morning it looks like a plain rain will fall.

UPDATED MAP:

Region A: This area will remain all snow, 8 to 12 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region B: A prolonged period of snowfall will accumulate 4 to 8 inches. A change over to freezing rain and even rain is possible.

Region C: A several hour period of snow will accumulate 2 to 4 inches before changing over to freezing rain and then plain rain. Potentially a significant amount of ice is possible. Guidance is too all over the place to put amounts regarding ice. By Tomorrow I will have a better understanding.

Region D: A short period of snowfall at the onset will accumulate a coating to 2 inches of snow.

Summary: Plan on a snowy Monday that will change over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain Monday Evening. Uncertainty remains how long we hold onto the frozen precipitation. By Midnight Tuesday Morning we should be receiving a plain rain.

Keep following my Facebook page for the latest! Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Significant To Major Winter Storm To Impact The Area Monday After Into Tuesday

After this Weekend's Major Arctic Outbreak, a significant to major Winter Storm is taking aim towards the mid-state.

A low pressure system will develop in the South on Sunday, then will take the turn Northward and reach our area by Monday Afternoon. The exact track of this storm is a major uncertainty right now. However, all models agree that there will be at least an initial period of snow for just about everybody.

This Afternoon's GFS Run:

GFS has a 997 low pressure centered over the DELMARVA which is an ideal spot for an all snow event for Central PA. Verbatim, Harrisburg goes from Snow to Rain to Sleet and then back to Snow...This will be a mess of a storm.

The Canadian Model:

The Canadian is much further East and Weaker...right now this an outlier. I don't by the solution right now. However, it would be an all snow event for South Central PA. Again don't buy it.

Today's European Run is much more amped, it starts us out with a period of snow, then quickly goes to rain for pretty much the whole state. This is the furthest west solution right now..I don't buy this solution right now either. I think the GFS is a solid middle ground solution.

With that being said, here is my first call map. Amounts will be included Tomorrow.

Region A: This area will be far enough North&West to remain primarily all snow. Heavy snow accumulation possible.

Region B: This area includes most of us. There will be a period of snow, that will change to ice, and eventually rain. Moderate snowfall accumulation possible before the change-over. Light glaze of ice possible as well.

Period C: This area will start off as snow, quickly then change to rain. Light snowfall accumulation possible.

This will be a longggg weekend of tracking, please keep it here to my Facebook Page: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Frigid Temperatures For This Weekend

The snow that fell yesterday, is here to stay. Not only am I expecting the mid-state to reach close to record breaking temperatures this Weekend, I am also keeping my eye on a potential Winter Storm for the early part of next week.

Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will struggle to get out of the teens and in some elevated areas, the single digits.

Take a look at how temperatures will feel like Saturday Afternoon, known as the Wind Chill Factor:

Brrr....Temperatures Saturday Afternoon will feel like below 0..in fact well below 0.

Actual temperatures plummet to near 0 degrees Saturday Night. This will leave the "real feel" temp Saturday Night and Sunday Morning dangerously cold:

The real feel temps will range between negative 15 and negative 25 degrees for the area. Colder as you head into the Poconos.

This is an urgent request that you bring in all your pets inside this weekend. I hate to say it, but they will die if you leave them out in these temperatures. Also, be sure to check in on your elderly neighbors, family members, and friends.

If you have any outdoor plans this weekend, please note if your skin is exposed to these temperatures for more than 30 minutes, you will be exposed to frostbite...

The next storm potential is between Monday (2/15) and Wednesday (2/17). Too early for specifics, however it looks like a fairly significant system will be targeting our region during this time. At this point I do not know whether it will be rain or snow..or even ice. The only thing I do know, is the time-frame and that it looks like a large system. I will have more updates as we get closer.

Please follow my Facebook page for more updates: Dauphin County Weather On Facebook!

-Chris

FINAL UPDATE ON SNOW AMOUNTS

As I sit here and review the latest guidance, it is becoming clear the Inverted Trough is aiming to setup shop right over SCPA and SEPA. All major guidance has this to some degree..GFS/CMC/EURO/UKIE. Honestly, it is kind of a relief to have some kind of model agreement.

With that being said, Inverted Troughs are nearly impossible to predict, so we will not truly know until the precipitation is pretty much right on our door step Monday Evening.

Look for the snow to start to fall after 7 PM this Evening and last throughout the day Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Snow may stop at times and be heavy at times.

Updated Map:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected, localized areas up to 12 inches.

Region B: Still remaining with 2 to 5 inches for our area. However, notice the dotted area has changed a bit since my previous call. Again, this area includes all of SCPA and SEPA. Anywhere inside this dotted area, has the chance to over-perform by a large margin. Some locations in this dotted area will receive a double digit snowfall. 

Region C: Less than 2 inches of snowfall. Notice the dotted line has extend into parts of this region.

For the latest check out my Facebook Page: Dauphin County Weather's Facebook Page!

-Chris 

SECOND CALL ON SNOW TOTALS

There is no doubt in my mind there will be surprises involved with this storm. Areas that are only expected to receive 2 to 5 inches of snow, may receive 10 inches of snow. It all depends where the inverted trough sets up. In case you missed my explanation of what an inverted trough is, it is basically a localized area that receives steady/heavy snow for several hours, while other areas around it just receive light snow. Which that is all many of us will receive...

GFS remains on its own with how aggressive it is with snow totals. I do not see anybody receiving more than 10 inches from this storm and that would be very localized. All other guidance is pretty much locked in on a widespread light to moderate snowfall.

Timing: Snow will begin to fall Monday Night, after 7 PM and will not officially end until 12 AM Wednesday Morning. Snow will fall lightly and even at times stop. This is a long duration-light snowfall event.

Updated map:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region B: 2 to 5 inches of snowfall is expected. Areas in the dotted area, is where I think the Inverted Trough may setup. And yes this includes all of Dauphin County. Somewhere in the dotted area, will receive a "surprise" snowfall. Localized areas may see up to 10 inches of snow. I stress the word localized. Most people will fall within the 2 to 5 inch range.

Region C: Less than 2 inches of snow.

Follow my Facebook page for more updates: Dauphin County Weather on Facebook!

Enjoy the Super Bowl and keep it here for the latest!

-Chris 

FIRST CALL ON THE EARLY WEEK SNOWSTORM

Another big headache is in the forecast for not only people that have to travel early this week, but also the forecasters themselves. At the same time, for snow lovers, things are getting a bit more interesting for the possibility of a more significant snowfall.

A clipper system will pass through the region, beginning Monday afternoon, as the snowfall will spread from West to East.

The image above is valid Monday Evening. Snow should start to fly in the air over Dauphin County after 4 PM Monday and will continue, steady at times, through late Tuesday Night and possibly even into early Wednesday Morning.

There will be lulls in the action at times, but this will technically be a 24 hour snowstorm. The lulls and light snowfall rates, will help keep totals from being "epic". If you are reading this from south of Baltimore through Southern New Jersey, rainfall mixing in will keep totals down.

There will be a "wild card" in this snowstorm. There will be an Inverted Trough involved, in English, there will be an area that receives a consistent period of heavy snowfall for several hours. Where this sets up, determines who can see double digit snowfall totals. Because it is 48 hours from the start of this storm, it is too early to determine where exactly the Inverted Trough sets up. Inverted Troughs are extremely hard to predict and we will likely not know where it will set up until about 12 hours prior to the storm occurring.

With that being said, here's the first look at my predicted snow totals:

Region A: 5 to 8 inches of snowfall expected.
Region B: 2 to 5 inches of snowfall expected.
Region C: Less than 2 inches of snowfall expected.

My forecasts Tomorrow and Monday will include where the Inverted Trough may setup. Right now I have too low of confidence to included the Inverted Trough.

I will leave you with this snow lovers, the latest GFS shows the Inverted Trough setting shop right over SCPA and Southeast PA.

Verbatim the GFS would be a 10 to 15 inch snowfall for Dauphin County. That is not my forecast, as my forecast is only for 2 to 5 inches, however this shows you all what the Inverted Trough can do to the snow totals we eventually end up with.

If you don't have my page liked on Facebook, please give it a like: Dauphin County Weather Facebook page!

-Chris 

Sneaky Snowstorm For Some

 A sneaky snowstorm that I mentioned earlier this morning in my video will impact Eastern areas of PA/NJ/DE/MD/Long Island..and the storm has trended so far Northwest that even portions of SCPA may wake up to a coating of snowfall Tomorrow Morning.

For the whole coverage area, snow will break out after 3 AM and last through Noon.

Region A: Snow showers are possible...this has the chance of clipper Southeast Dauphin County. No accumulation is expected in this zone.

Region B: A coating to 1 inch of snowfall is expected.

Region C: 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region D: 3 to 6 inches of snowfall is expected.

Due to the timing of this storm, expect school delays and even cancellations for those East of our area. If you have any plans to the coastal regions, I would avoid travelling until at least Saturday if you are able to.

Early next week..Mon-Wed time-frame offers a better chance of a more widespread, possibly significant snowfall to the mid-state. More details on that coming Tomorrow.

-Chris

Warmth and Flooding This Week, Two Winter Storms Possible Next Week.

Over the last week or so, the melting process from the historic snowstorm has been quite steady, which is good news. However, most locations around the area still have anywhere between 6 and even 12 inches of snowfall on the ground, and of course those huge snow piles in parking lots and on the side of the roads. This gets the attention to forecasters out there because Wednesday will not only feature temperatures approaching the upper 50s to even 60 degrees, in some locations out ahead of a cold front, it will also feature a period of heavy rain and even thunderstorms. Because of this, the National Weather Service out of State College has issued a FLOOD WATCH which is in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. River flooding should not be an issue, but smaller creeks and streams may flood over their banks significantly, especially in flood prone areas.

Wednesday High Temps:

Don't be fooled in the image, many of us already peaked to near 60 degrees West of the Susquehanna River. In that particular image, the Cold front is sitting right over our region.

Here is a look at the rainfall valid 1 PM Wednesday:

Notice the oranges and reds...that is indicating embedded thunderstorms along this cold front, which will lead to bursts of heavier rain and potentially damaging winds. The showers will arrive here between 4 AM and 7 AM Wednesday Morning and last until about 4 PM. The worst of the rain will be between 10 AM and 2 PM. Rainfall totals will be in the 1 to 2 inch range, with pockets of 3 inches.

My attention then turns to next week, where I am beginning to see the possibility of two separate Winter Storms occurring, one being Monday Night (2/8) into Tuesday (2/9) and another storm late Wednesday (2/10) into Thursday (2/11).

For the first storm, a low pressure will be developing in the Southeast, and will try to make the turn up the coast. Whether it tracks right over us, versus a couple hundred miles offshore makes a huge difference whether we see rain, snow, or nothing at all. The latest GFS is the "Middle ground" solution currently. The image below is valid for late Monday Night.

Verbatim, the Lower Susquehanna Valley would be talking about a plow-able snowstorm. Nothing like the blizzard, however still a significant amount. The Canadian model has a low pressure tracking further inland, and delivers rain to our area, while places like State College and northward see accumulating snowfall. The European model keeps the system far enough offshore, we just see some light snowfall, turning to a light rainfall. If I had to put percentages out, I would say 70% for a storm, 30% for no storm.

Our next storm potential comes just a day later...guidance is split right now whether another low pressure creeps up the coast out of the Gulf of Mexico, or a clipper system redevelops and rapidly deepens somewhere in the Northeast. At this point, it is hard to talk about this storm with specifics, but this storm has better potential of delivering a more significant punch...but as it stands right now, it looks like areas further inland, and North as well have the better shot at seeing a substantial Winter Storm from this system than we do. A lot will change over the next 9 days...for snow lovers, you never want to be in the bulls-eye 9 days out.

The latest GFS right now is hinting at a period of snow for the second storm, but it is rather on its own for now with this solution.

That image is valid for Wednesday Afternoon. Like I said previously, guidance is really split on that storm. The upper air pattern would favor a track inland..near I-95, which would put our area right on the rain/snow line..so that's my preliminary thoughts regarding that system.

Summary: High temps of near 60 degrees and heavy rains Wednesday will lead to moderate and even significant flooding for some areas. Next week features two Winter Storm chances..Late Monday/Tuesday...and Wednesday/Thursday. This will be a long week of tracking, so make sure you keep it here.

Don't forget to like my Facebook Page-----> Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris 

2nd Call On The Major Winter Storm Friday Night through Saturday

We are now a little over 48 hours away from a major Winter Storm impacting the Mid-State. Latest guidance continues to key on our area for a significant snowfall.

Last night, I was concerned that our area might escape the significant snowfall because the European Model and it's Ensembles were keeping the heaviest precip south of the region. Well the latest run now pushes the heavier precip back into our neck of the woods.

Take a look at the comparison of the European Ensemble mean from last night vs Today's run.

Click on the image to zoom in...notice the darker greens how much further they make it up into PA than last night. This is a great sign for snow lovers.

However, there is still some worries out there. With this storm, there will be a severe cut-off. For example, Southern Dauphin has the chance to double those amounts in Northern Dauphin County if things set up like they potentially could. We will not know until the storm is crawling up the coast. This will be a very important now-cast situation.

GFS shows this cut-off well, however it is far enough North, that all of Dauphin County survives the cut-off.

Regardless, I do not see us getting away with absolutely no snowfall. I would be worried if lived near the State College area, rather than Harrisburg.

With all that being said, here is my latest thoughts.

Region A: Best chance to see 20 or more inches of snow.
Region B: 14-20 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region C: 8-14 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region D: 4-8 inches of snowfall is expected.
Region E: Coating to 4 inches of snowfall is expected.




TIMING: SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN AFTER 9 PM FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAPER OFF UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

Be sure to like my page on Facebook for the latest ---> DAUPHIN COUNTY WEATHER FACEBOOK PAGE!
-Chris

Major Winter Storm On The Way?

Alright before I get started here, I am going to show you a model by model breakdown of exactly what each of the three main weather models are showing for Friday (1/22) and Saturday (1/23).

A storm will gather its energy near Colorado mid-week, before taking a track towards the Gulf of Mexico. This allows the low pressure to gather more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before taking a track to the Northeast. In other words...a classic track for a Winter Storm.

Latest GFS:

GFS has a major storm sitting off the coast of Virginia early Saturday Morning. The latest run is just south enough to keep us out of the epic snows, however, compared to its previous run, this run was a big improvement. Verbatim, the GFS would lead to a 6-12" snowstorm, 6" for Northern Dauphin, 12" for Southern Dauphin. Again that is verbatim..not a forecast. Epic snows remain south of the Mason Dixon line, where areas near DC and Baltimore see 12-20" of snow.

Next up the Canadian:

The Canadian model has the major storm about 100 miles Northwest of where GFS has it. Again this is early Saturday Morning. Verbatim, the Canadian would bring epic snows to the Mid-State, while areas South and East of I-95 have mixing issues. Verbatim, this model would bring 14-20" to all of Central and Eastern PA.

Lastly we have the European Model:

I know it is not as easy to see, however it has a similar look to the Canadian model, but instead a colder solution with the low pressure sitting about 50 miles further East. This again would bring epic snows to the Mid-State. Verbatim this would lead to a 16-22" snowfall, with the Laurel Highlands approaching a whopping 30".

Summary: All models are indicating a major storm Friday Afternoon into Saturday. GFS keeps epic snows south, while still delivering 6-12" of snow, CMC and Euro are both epic solutions, delivering 14-22" of snow verbatim.

My thoughts? It is a wait and see kind of game for me. I laid it all out on the playing for you guys to see what I am looking at. PLEASE DO NOT TELL OTHERS "A BIG SNOWSTORM IS COMING THIS WEEKEND." Just wait until Tuesday before declaring that. A lot can and will change. However, I will say I like what I see for you snow lovers out there.

P.S. Find your yard sticks everybody....just kidding...for now.

If you see this article, then like my Facebook Page for updates regarding this potential Major Winter Storm: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Big Storm This Weekend Will Lead To More Rain

Beginning early Saturday Morning, while most of us are sleeping, rain will begin to develop from the South. There will be two separate lows to track, one, a low pressure that cuts through the Great Lakes into Canada, and another low that forms a significant coastal storm.

IF we did not have the low pressure in Southeast Canada and just had the coastal storm we would be talking about a significant snowstorm for our region. However, thanks to the low in SE Canada, warmer air is able to sneak into the region, helping this storm deliver rainfall.

Take a look at the latest GFS valid early Saturday Morning:

Whether the coastal storm takes a track closer to the coast, or further away from the coast will determine how much rainfall the Mid-State sees. If it takes a track to the right, we get brushed, if it takes a track to the left, we are in for a washout. I am favoring closer to the left track, unfortunately.

Rainfall amounts will range from 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches. All rain should be out of the region by Saturday Evening.

When is our next chance for snow? Monday may offer some light snow showers, not looking too promising at the moment. Another potent storm is brewing between the 21st and 23rd. Too far out for details, but again, the trend this Winter for big storms, is for them to produce rainfall...

Do not forget to like DCW on Facebook: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

-Chris

Final Call Map On Tomorrow's Clipper...Big Storm Looming For The Weekend?

No surprise here, a Clipper is on its way to deliver a light snowfall for many of us. Over the last 24 hours, I am becoming increasingly concerned that rather our area see a period of light steady snow, we see a line of squalls form. These snow squalls may deliver blinding snow for a period of 10 to 20 minutes then it is gone. If your local town receives one of these intense snow squalls, there is no doubt in my mind areas may over-perform in terms of accumulation. It is simply a wait and see game to see who gets what at this point.

The latest NAM model shows the line of squalls forming to our West quite well.

Timing: The timing has sped up a little bit. Some light snow showers are possible between 10 AM and 2 PM. A heavy Snow Squall line may whip through the area between 2 PM and 6 PM, deliver with it our accumulating snow.

There is still a chance that the mountains "eat up" a lot of the precipitation before making it to Dauphin County, however I still think enough squalls survive the mountains for many of us too see flakes flying in the air. For my final call map, I trimmed the Coating to 1 inch area a bit on the southern edge. Nothing else has changed.

Yes folks, there will be a big storm this weekend. As of right now, it is an all rain event for everyone in PA..that is how I see it at the moment. Timing would be Saturday Morning through Saturday Night. Here is the setup.

In the picture below, you will a low pressure cut up through the Ohio Valley, this low pressure then dies out and reforms a second low off the coast of Jersey, then heads Northeastward from there.

In order for our area to see snowfall, we want the primary low cutting up through the Ohio Valley to die out over the state of Kentucky, then transfer off the coast of Southeast Virginia. If this occurs, which is not looking likely at the moment, a significant snowfall would be possible across the Mid-State.

We still have a good 4 days for this storm to trend colder, but as of now it is another rain maker. So snow lovers, make sure you appreciate every flake that falls Tomorrow...keep your fingers crossed for the weekend.

With a big storm coming this weekend, make sure you have my page liked on Facebook ---> Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

Thanks in advance. -Chris

First Call On Snowfall Amounts Tuesday Night

A clipper system will take a track over the Great Lakes to our North on Tuesday, delivering with it periods of snow showers and squalls to the Mid-State Tuesday Evening into Tuesday Night. The latest GFS still continues to show a steady snowfall for much of the state:

I do not think that is the case for many of us. I am starting to believe the mountains to our West will break up the snowfall, leading to snow showers and squalls rather than a solid area of snowfall.

What does this mean? Not everyone East of the Mountains will see accumulating snowfall. However, still many of us will see snow coat the ground Tuesday Evening/Night. Folks in the Poconos and NEPA will have a better shot than us in the Lower Susquehanna Valley to see snow stick to the ground as the clipper gets a bit more energy as it heads off the coast.

With that being said here is my snow map. Snow showers will begin Tuesday Mid-Afternoon and will continue on and off for the rest of the Evening. (The timing is for Dauphin County only. Areas to the West will start and end sooner, while areas to the East it will start and end later.)

Click on the image to view it larger.

Region A (Dark Blue): 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected.

Region B (Lighter Blue): Coating to 1 inch of snowfall is expected. If the Mountains do break up the snowfall, some locations in this region may not see much, if any snow. I will continue to monitor that situation over the next 24 hours.

Next Weekend:

Big storm coming Jan 16th-18th?? Yes, guidance is indicating a storm system in this time period, but I would not get too excited if I were a snow lover (which I am).  Guidance will continue to waffle back and forth over the next few days. If you hear that a blizzard is coming, that is all HYPE. Do not believe it. It all depends on the track whether we see Snow or Rain...the trend has been Rain this Winter...we will see if that continues. Fingers crossed snow lovers.

If you do not have my page liked on Facebook, please give it a like for more updates: Dauphin County Weather Facebook Page!

First Widespread Snowfall Tuesday Evening Into Wednesday Morning

Before I get started talking about the clipper system impacting our region next week, we still have to get passed Sunday's rainstorm. It is still looking like a complete washout for our area...

Per the GFS, hefty rains will be setting shop over the Mid-State Sunday Morning into the Afternoon hours. The rain will begin to clear out after 10 PM Sunday Night.

Darker greens indicating the heavier rain in the above image. Now below is the total rainfall from this system. Still going with a general 1 to 2 inches of rain. Minor street flooding is likely. 

On the backside of this system, the winds will be blowing out of Canada delivering with it much colder air and even wrap around snowfall for the Northwest part of the state late Sunday Night into early Monday Morning. Snow amounts may reach up to 2 inches for those in the blue shading. The Lower Susquehanna Valley is not included in this, although back-end flurries are not out of the question. 

Over the last 24 hours, after reviewing guidance, I am becoming fairly confident that our first widespread snowfall of the year will be here Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. Widespread does not automatically mean significant. This will be a clipper system that will dive down into the Great Lakes region, far south enough to deliver all of PA a period of light snowfall.

Picture below is valid Tuesday Night.

Now the question remains, will this just be your average clipper, or will it try to redevelop a low pressure system off the coast prolonging the snowfall? The GFS tries to do this. If it were to develop a little further south this run, it would of been a moderate snowfall for much of EPA/NJ. Still only light impacts for the Harrisburg area.

Picture below is valid early Wednesday Morning.

Notice the darker blues in Maryland and Southeast PA..that is the coastal trying to develop a prolonged period of snow. If these bands were to set up, perhaps a couple inches of snow may accumulate under whoever sees those bands of heavier snows. At the same time, notice the gaps to our west. This is a very quick hitter. We are looking at a 3-6 hour period of light snow. By the time most of us wake up Wednesday Morning it will be gone.

So how much snow will fall? I think many of us will fall under the coating to 1 inch category. Just enough to whiten up the ground for the first time this season. If you are reading this from Eastern PA and New Jersey, I would keep an eye out for an additional inch or two of snowfall. It depends how quickly the low pressure system redevelops off the coast.

-Chris

Two Storms This Weekend, Another Looming For Next Week

To all the snow lovers out there, this post will make you cringe a little bit. Over the last few days in the Mid-State, we have been waking up to temperatures below 15 degrees, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. But...where is the precipitation?

The precipitation will enter our region late Friday Night into Saturday Morning in the form of rain because by then, our temperatures will support nothing but rain. Guidance is trying to suggest that higher elevated areas see a mix, I am not buying it. Expect a light rain event beginning late Friday Night into Saturday Morning.

Here is the surface map valid Friday Night per the GFS:

Again not buying any of the pink that is showing up...below is a look at the rain totals for our area:

All of us should remain below a quarter inch of rainfall. Another thing to note, this will be a quick hitter. Depending on your sleep schedule, you may not even notice it rained overnight Friday/early Saturday Morning.

The second storm enters the region early Sunday Morning. This is a much more potent system. Even though I never made an official forecast of this system, I honestly felt we had a good shot at seeing a snowstorm with this system thanks to ensemble guidance. But, over the last 48 hours or so, everything gave into a much further western track. This puts all of PA on the warm side of the system. This will be a full out rainstorm for all of PA.

Below is the GFS valid for Pre-dawn hours on Sunday Morning.

This is quite the rainstorm folks. Notice snow is not to be seen anywhere close to PA. You will have to travel to the U.P. of Michigan/Wisconsin to see snowfall from this system. And please..if you see any pages out there telling you this is a Winter Storm for PA, it is not. They are wish-casting...

Below is the rainfall amounts from this system per the GFS. Most guidance actually agrees our area will see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated locations receiving more than that.

This will be a 12 to 18 hour steady rain maker. If we are lucky, Sunday Evening the rain begins to clear out of the area.

On the backside of this system, the cold air wraps into the Northeast. Much like earlier this week, we will have below average temperatures for much of next week. With a trough over the region, I am keeping my eye on a possible storm that may round the trough and come up the coast. Take a look at the upper air pattern per the GFS:

There are two separate pieces of energy, both marked with X's. One over the Great Lakes and another down in the Southeast. Where these two energies merge remains to be seen. However, if they merge close enough to our area, we could see a snow event late Tuesday/Wednesday time-frame.

The Mid-Day GFS as seen above, was most aggressive with the phase. The Canadian model had no southern piece of energy, and the European model had both pieces of energy, but merged the two pieces of energy too late to really pack a punch for our area.

Here is a look at what the surface look like with the Mid-Day GFS:

This shows a substantial storm a little too far out to sea to really give us a significant snowfall. However, we still get grazed verbatim.

Now take a look at this evening's run of the GFS:

This run keeps the two energies completely separate which leads to virtually no storm. The difference of these two model runs are only 6 hours. The Mid-Day GFS initializes at 10:30 AM, while the evening's run of the GFS initializes at 4:30 PM. Look at how vastly different they are. This is what weather enthusiasts and meteorologists have to deal with all the time. This is why you also do not see meteorologists mentioning snowstorms as close as four days out. They are too scared to lose their job, because they know how fast guidance can change.

So what are my thoughts regarding Tuesday/Wednesday?

As of right now, I do not see these two systems phasing. Instead I think the northern stream dives a bit further south than currently modeled and is the dominant piece of energy. This allows the opportunity for a clipper event. It depends how far south the clipper tracks if we see any snowfall out of it. Typically, clippers deliver 1 to 3/3 to 6 inches of light fluffy snow.

Just to be clear, I am not calling for snowfall Tuesday Night into Wednesday at the moment. However, what I am calling is if there is a storm, it will be in the form of a Clipper, rather than two energies forming off the coast creating a much larger system.

-Chris